EUROPEAN COUNCIL: Politico-France Not Backing German Push For Swift US Deal

The labor differential within the Conf. Board consumer survey was in firm contrast to the surprise strength in the headline metrics.

• The differential fell further to 13.2 from a downward revised 13.7 (initial 15.1) for its lowest since Sep 2024 and before that Mar 2021.
• The small deterioration on the month came from jobs being perceived as hard to get rising from 17.5% to 18.6%, a joint high with Sep 2024 and last seen higher in Feb 2021.
• That chimes a bit more with the relatively small increase in the overall present situation reading (135.9 after 131.1) compared to the expectations index jumping from 55.4 to 72.8.

Fresh wave of weakness seen in SEK crosses. No obvious headline trigger for the move, which has already started fading.

• EURSEK reached a fleeting high of 10.9937, piercing the 20-day day EMA at 10.8952 in the process.
• USDSEK similarly marked above the 20-day EMA (9.6685), before moving back below the handle. The stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence reading at 1500BST will have also support the USDSEK pair.
• Heavy Swedish data calendar tomorrow, with retail sales, trade, lending and wage data due at 0700BST. 

• US cash markets gap higher at the open on the overnight ramp in futures as Trump outlined a delay to the higher tariff threat levied against the EU. Tech and travel names trade well on the back of the news - with Teradyne, AMD and Oracle all higher alongside airlines.
• The e-mini S&P still holds 65 point gains on the day, but is off overnight highs. This keeps the price pinned well between the longer-term trend indicators of the 100- and 200-dmas. A bullish trend condition remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A key support lies at 5719.58, the 50-day EMA.
• Carmakers are the strongest subcomponent, but the performance is far from uniform: Tesla is higher by ~4% against much smaller gains for General Motors and Ford - better S/T trade relations with Europe are underpinning the rally, but Musk's reassurance that he's back working hard for Tesla will be shoring up the price.
• Trade headlines remain an ever-present background risk, but geopolitics is containing any breakout higher in prices after Trump's more belligerent tone with Putin on top of Germany's announcement over the weekend that Western weaponry can be used deeper into Russian territory - allaying any hopes of an imminent reset in Ukraine-Russia relations.