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Swiss real retail sales were rather weak in April, printing -0.3% M/M (seasonally-adjusted) and 1.3% Y/Y (calendar adjusted, weakest yearly rate since June 2024). Overall, the print might be consistent with Swiss economic conditions cooling a little in Q2 vs a strong first quarter - the KOF barometer also indicated softer sentiment for the months ahead.

• On a broad Y/Y 3m average basis, Swiss retail sales continue to print above  their long-term average recently - suggesting that the sector overall is in solid shape. However, the drop from March was noticeable also here - see first chart below.
• The April weakness appears to be driven by the clothing and footwear category, which can be volatile but saw its softest consecutive print since October 2024. Most other categories were also on the weaker side in April (see bottom chart).

• SPAIN MAY MANUFACTURING PMI 50.5 (48.4 FCAST, 48.1 APRIL)

Swiss Q1 growth came above the flash release at 0.8% Q/Q on a sports-event and seasonally-adjusted basis and follows Q4's 0.6%. "The services sector delivered broad based growth. Domestic demand developed positively. Meanwhile, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry expanded at an above-average rate", SECO comments. This means that despite the strong print being underpinned by tariff front-running in the US, the broad-based contributions from the services sector point towards some underlying strength.

• Strong growth momentum last quarter should, on the margin, point away from an outsized 50bp cut to -0.25% at the June 19 SNB meeting, which markets currently see a 1-in-3 chance of. However, the SNB's main concern currently remains low inflation - May data will be released tomorrow, with consensus looking for -0.1% Y/Y.
• Remember that SNB Chairman Schlegel mentioned on May 19 that Swiss growth will likely be lower than expected "a few weeks ago" - the SNB's March forecast for 2025 stands at 1.0%-1.5%. It is not entirely clear if Schlegel was referring to this official forecast with the statement, or if the SNB internally saw growth stronger in the meantime.