OIL: Poland Urges EU To End Russian Oil Imports By 2026
Sep-17 12:14
Poland has urged EU member states still buying Russian energy to end those imports by the end of 2026, Energy Minister Milosz Motyka said Sep. 17.
- The EU banned seaborne imports of Russian crude in Dec. 2022 and seaborne Russian products in Feb. 2023.
- The Druzhba oil pipeline delivers Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, which continue to buy energy supplies from Russia.
- The European Commission will propose speeding up the phasing out of Russian fossil imports, the EU executive head Ursula von der Leyen said Sep. 16 after a call with US President Donald Trump.
- The bloc had previously planned to end purchases of Russian oil and gas by Jan. 2028.
- The Polish minister called for the timeline to be brought forward by two years, particularly in light of the recent Russian drone incursion on Poland's territory.
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OIL: Off Lows On Druzhba Disruption
Aug-18 12:08
Our commodities team notes that crude prices have recovered some ground amid disruption to Druzhba pipeline flows after a Ukrainian attack. Focus remains on a meeting of European leaders, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and US President Trump later today as efforts to secure a peace agreement in Ukraine ramp up.
RIKSBANK: MNI Riksbank Preview - Aug '25: Inflation Interpretation Key
Aug-18 11:50
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The Riksbank is expected to hold rates at 2.00% on Wednesday, in an interim decision that includes a concise Monetary Policy Update instead of a new MPR or rate path projection. That will leave focus on the policy statement guidance.
- Heading into the August decision, the Board will need to weigh higher-than-expected spot inflation pressures against continued softness in labour market and activity data, alongside a higher-than-expected EU-US tariff outcome. The large upward inflation surprise in June, which was mostly consolidated in July, should guard against a surprise rate move.
- However, the Riksbank is sensitive to economic activity and has demonstrated a willingness to lend support with monetary easing already this year. This dovish bias will likely be reaffirmed if the Board views the summer inflation uptick as temporary (in a similar fashion to Q1).
- Analysts are unanimous in expecting rates to remain on hold at 2.00% in August, but there is more of a divide for the September decision. Of the 13 previews we have seen, eight expect a final 25bp cut to 1.75% in September, while five expect no further cuts.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Gilts Remains Present
Aug-18 11:42
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply lower Friday resulting in a breach of support at 128.84, the Jul 25 low and bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.97, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.72.
- Gilt futures traded sharply lower Friday, alongside global bonds. The move down resulted in a print below key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. This once again highlights a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 90.59, the May 29 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is seen at 92.05, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a potential reversal.
