COLOMBIA: Petro Appoints Two New BanRep Board Members, Economist Survey Due

• US President-elect Donald Trump delivered his first press conference since winning re-election in November, at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida yesterday. Trump was joined at the podium by his Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick and for the first few minutes by SoftBank’s chief executive Masayoshi Son to announce a $100 billion investment. Inside we have a full roundup of the market-relevant comments on a range of domestic and foreign policy issues.
• Embattled Trump Cabinet nominees Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Health Secretary), Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence), and Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary) continue meetings with Senators on Capitol Hill today.
• President Biden urged the Trump administration to continue investment programmes initiated by his administration in an American Prospect op-ed.
• Government funding expires at midnight Friday and Congressional leaders are yet to release the final text of a Continuing Resolution to punt appropriations.
• Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) is calling for the child tax credit to increase from $2,000 to $5,000 per child, setting up a potential confrontation with deficit hawks next year.
• Outgoing Canadian Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland noted Trump’s tariff threat in a dramatic resignation from Cabinet yesterday.
• Poll of the Day: A majority, or plurality, of voters think Trump's tariffs proposals will hurt the US economy.

Full article: US Daily Brief

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Service inflation remains a key area of focus behind the inflation data. Analysts are watching a range of variables this month, including some eyeing Taylor Swift-relevant categories along with a more typical look at shelter and mortgage interest costs after the first of the BoC’s 50bp cuts in October. 

• CIBC: “Evidence from other countries suggests that Taylor Swift’s arrival in Canada likely drove stronger inflation in hotels, restaurants and air fares, and we have factored in a 0.3% seasonally adjusted increase in ex food/energy CPI as a result.”
• GS: “A decline in new housing prices in October implies a -0.4% mom sa decline in homeowners' replacement cost inflation in November (vs. +0.1% in October). […] Given that the gap between market and average rents continues to narrow, we expect sequential rent inflation to moderate slightly to +0.4% mom sa in November, vs. +0.5% in October.” Another area GS will watch is their forecast for mortgage interest costs, seen moderating 0.1pp to +0.6% mom sa, “reflecting a decline in average rates on variable-rate mortgages—which still account for around a quarter of total outstanding mortgages in Canada—following the 50bp cut at the end of October.”
• RBC: “Shelter inflation still accounts for a disproportionate share of overall inflation, but should show further signs of slowing in November. Mortgage interest costs were still up almost 15% from a year ago in October, and accounted for over a quarter of annual consumer price growth. But, that is down from a 30% growth peak in 2023 and will continue to slow following interest rate cuts. Rent inflation also likely eased as a drop in current market asking rents flow through to lease renewals.”
• Scotia: “Most of what I’ve used to arrive at a soft reading is a reversal of some outsized jumps the prior month. Shelter being one, particularly as seasonal property tax hikes were large at 6% m/m NSA, contributing a weighted 0.15% to the m/m rise in total CPI in October. Clothing and footwear is another as new seasonal lines rolled out in October and incorporate lagging cost and price changes. Ditto for passenger vehicle prices.”
• TDS: “Higher mortgage interest costs will continue to drive m/m gains in shelter, but this month should see a much larger offset from homeowner replacement costs on a pullback in new house prices. We also look for continued deceleration in rented accommodation with market rents moving further into negative territory on a year-ago basis, building on the 1.1pp drop last month. Elsewhere, the culmination of Taylor Swift's Eras tour will help to drive strength in travel services during what is typically a quiet month for traveler accommodations, while our tracking of Canadian airfares hints at a modest decline from October.”