The PES unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted registered unemployment claims rate tracked by the Swedish Public Employment Service) was broadly steady in January, printing at 6.65% (vs 6.61% prior). The LFS unemployment rate - which the Riksbank forecasts in its MPR - is due on Friday, and analysts expect an unchanged rate at 8.2%.
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Recent weakness in JGBs resulted in a low print of 145.86, on Jan 26. The contract has recovered, however, a stronger reversal is required to signal the end of the recent corrective phase. A resumption of weakness would potentially open 144.60 support. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 147.74, the mid-January high. A break would resume the uptrend. MA studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.
Aussie 10yr futures remain in a medium-term uptrend after the contract traded to new highs of 96.110 at the end of 2023. This cleared key resistance at the 96.050 level and the pullback in January appears to have been a correction. 96.110, the Dec 28 high, is the bull trigger. Key support lies below at 95.390 as well as 95.275. Weakness through here would be a bearish development. For now, a pullback is considered corrective.
USDCAD remains below its recent highs. Attention is on key short-term resistance at 1.3542, the Jan 17 high. For bulls, a clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. Key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a bearish development. First support lies at 1.3448, the 20-day EMA.