SWEDEN: PES Vacancies Retrace January Rise
The PES unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted registered unemployment claims rate tracked by the Swedish Public Employment Service) was broadly steady in January, printing at 6.65% (vs 6.61% prior). The LFS unemployment rate - which the Riksbank forecasts in its MPR - is due on Friday, and analysts expect an unchanged rate at 8.2%.
- Note that the Bloomberg calendar reports the NSA claims rate excluding those in job support programmes (which was 3.5%, steady vs January).
- The press release notes that 18-24-year old NSA unemployment rose 4k to 43k, bringing the NSA unemployment rate to 7.9%.
- Looking into the details of the print, vacancies fell to 114k from 130k, more than retracing January's 11k rise.
- The vacancies to unemployment ratio thus moderated to 0.33 (vs 0.37 prior), below the cycle high of 0.60 in May '23.
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JGB TECHS: (H4) Remains Above The January Low
- RES 3: 149.53 - High Mar 22 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 2: 148.74 - High Jul 24 (cont)
- RES 1: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 146.22 @ 15:52 GMT Feb 09
- SUP 1: 144.60 - Low Dec 08 / 11
- SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont)
- SUP 3: 143.29 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 22 - Apr 18 - May 12 swing
Recent weakness in JGBs resulted in a low print of 145.86, on Jan 26. The contract has recovered, however, a stronger reversal is required to signal the end of the recent corrective phase. A resumption of weakness would potentially open 144.60 support. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 147.74, the mid-January high. A break would resume the uptrend. MA studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H4) Broader Trend Remains Up
- RES 3: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.160 - High Jul 20
- RES 1: 96.110 - High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 95.810 @ 15:51 GMT Feb 09
- SUP 1: 95.650 - Low Jan 19
- SUP 2: 95.390/275 - Low Nov 27 / 14
- SUP 3: 94.965 - Low Oct 31
Aussie 10yr futures remain in a medium-term uptrend after the contract traded to new highs of 96.110 at the end of 2023. This cleared key resistance at the 96.050 level and the pullback in January appears to have been a correction. 96.110, the Dec 28 high, is the bull trigger. Key support lies below at 95.390 as well as 95.275. Weakness through here would be a bearish development. For now, a pullback is considered corrective.
USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 1.3542/44 High Jan 17 / Feb 5 and 6 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3461 @ 16:10 GMT Feb 9
- SUP 1: 1.3448/3359 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
- SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
- SUP 4: 1.3229 Low Feb 1
USDCAD remains below its recent highs. Attention is on key short-term resistance at 1.3542, the Jan 17 high. For bulls, a clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. Key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a bearish development. First support lies at 1.3448, the 20-day EMA.
