USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.7120 61.8% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 3: 0.7088 High Jun 15  
• RES 2: 0.7071 50.0% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.7027 High Jul 21  
• PRICE: 0.6960 @ 20:42 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 0.6938 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.6907 Low Jul 8
• SUP 3: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. A bear cycle is intact and - for now - the recent climb is considered corrective. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.7005. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bounce and signal scope for a continued retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger is 0.6865, the Jun 30 low. A breach would resume the downtrend.

SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: Heavier put volumes after the FOMC held rates steady, underlying mostly back to pre-FOMC levels, curves twist steeper with the short end outperforming. Projected rate hike pricing through October consolidated, December still pricing in a 25bp hike. Current vs. late Tuesday (*): Sep'26 at +14.4bp (+24.1bp), Oct'26 at 21bp (31.4bp), Dec'26 32.1bp (+40.5bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +10,000 SFRZ6 96.18/96.25 call spds, 1.5 ref 95.85
  • -10,000 SFRQ6 96.12/96.25 call spds, 1.375 ref 96.01
  • -8,000 SFRQ6 95.93/96.00 put spds vs 96.12/96.62 call spds, 2.5 net ref 96.015
  • -5,000 SFRZ6 96.25 calls, 5.25 vs. 95.86/0.10%
  • -10,000 SFRQ6 95.75/95.81/95.87 2x3x1 put flys, 2.25 wings over
  • +10,000 SFRQ6 95.87/96.00/96.06/96.12 put condors, 1.25 ref 96.025
  • +5,000 SFRU6 95.75/95.81/95.87 put flys, 0.75/ ref 96.025
  • -3,000 SFRU6 95.75/96.00 2x1 put spds, 3.0 vs 96.02/0.175, offered
  • +5,000 SFRU6 96.00/96.06/96.12 call flys, 0.75 96.025
  • +10,000 OQZ6 97.00/97.25 call spds, 1.0 vs. 95.92-95.925/0.04%
  • -10,000 SFRZ6 95.25/95.50 2x1 put spds vs SFRU6 95.56/95.68 put spds, .25-0.0 net
  • -3,000 0QQ6 95.50 puts, 2.0 ref 95.825
  • +4,000 SFRQ6 96.00/95.875ps v 96.125 fut 96.025 .25d +2/4k (ps
  • Block/screen, 9,000 SFRQ6 95.93/96.00/96.03/96.12 put condors, 1.0 ref 96.025
  • -6,250 SFRZ6 95.81/96.31 strangles, 20.75-20.5
  • 1,300 SFRU6 96.00/96.06/96.12 call flys
  • 2,000 SFRH7 95.56/95.68 put spds vs. 0QH7 95.12/95.37 put spds
  • 6,500 SFRZ6 95.68/0QZ6 95.50 put spds, 1.0 net/SFRZ over
  • -2,000 SFRH7 96.31/96.50/96.56 broken call flys, 2.0 ref 95.80
  • -14,000 SFRQ6 95.93/96.06 put spds 2.75-3.0 over 96.12/96.50 call spds 
  • 4,500 SFRQ6 95.93/96.00/96.06/96.12 put condors
  • 14,000 SFRQ6 95.93/96.06 put spds
  • 2,000 SFRQ6 95.68/95.75 put spds, cab
  • +3,500 SFRU6 96.18/96.31 call spds, 2.5 ref 96.04
• Treasury Options:
  • +50,000 USU6 108.5 puts, 23-37 on day, 29 last
  • +50,000 wk1 TY 107.5 puts, 5 ref 108-21.5 (exp 8/7)
  • 75,000 wk5 TY 108 puts (exp Fri) 2-0.0 over wk1 TY 107.5 puts (exp 8/7)
  • 5,000 TUU6 103.38/103.5 call spds 
  • 5,000 USU6 110.5/112 1x2 call spds, 13 ref 110-11
  • -6,400 wk5 TY 107/107.75/108.5 put flys, 9
  • +10,000 wk1 TY 112 calls, 10 ref 110-18 (exp 8/7)
  • 8,500 TYU6 111 calls, 2 
  • 5,300 TYV6 109/109.5 strangles
  • 4,000 TYU6 108.25 puts, 28 ref 108-19
  • -2,000 TYU6 108.5 puts, 37 vs. 108-13.5/0.38%
  • 4,500 TYU6 108 puts, 21 ref 108-17.5
  • 6,000 TUU6 102.87/103/103.12/103.25 call condors, 2 net vs 102-26.87/0.03%
  • 3,500 TYU6 107.25/108 put spds
  • +1,700 FVU6 106 puts, 19 ref 106-09.75/0.39%
  • 1,500 FVU6 106.25/FVV6 106 straddle spds. 29 net
  • 5,000 wk1 US/USU6 112 call spds, 16 net/USU over
  • 5,000 TUU6 102.5/102.62/102.75 put flys, .5 ref 102-26
  • +30,000 FVU6 105.5/106 put spds, 9.5 ref 106-08.75
  • 3,000 FVU6 107 straddles ref 106-09
  • -2,700 wk5 TY 109 calls, 7 ref 108-21 (exp Fri)

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 127.93/42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 127.13 @ 20:00 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 126.27 - Low May 20 and a key support 
• SUP 2: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

JGB futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A bearish theme remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose 126.27, the May 20 low, where a break would confirm a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would instead signal a short-term reversal and highlight a potential break of the 50-dma - at 127.93.