OIL: OPEC+ Agree Multi-Layered Production Cut Extension Until 2025
OPEC+ agreed a multi layered deal on Sunday to extend all of its existing production cuts until 2025.
- The first extends the groups formal crude production targets until the end of next year – worth around 2mn bpd and agreed in October 2022.
- The second covers the 1.66mn bpd of voluntary cuts agreed by nine of the groups members in the first half of 2023 – due to run out this year but also extended until the end of 2025.
- The third is related to the 2.2mn bpd of voluntary cuts announced between June and November last year, due to run out at the end of this month – prolonged until the end of September and then staged over a 12-month period.
- The third set is still open for change the group said.
- "We maintain the choice that we could pause or could reverse. This is not new, we've been doing it over the last three years and I think it has proven to be effective," Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said.
- The widely expected move leaves crude trading flat on Monday.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Continues To Point South
- RES 3: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.110 - High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 95.800 - High Apr 19
- PRICE: 95.595 @ 16:01 BST May 03
- SUP 1: 95.235 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov - Dec ‘23 rally
- SUP 2: 94.965 - Low Oct 31 ‘23
- SUP 3: 94.866 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 2 price swing
A bearish cycle in Aussie 10yr futures remains in play and the latest extension reinforces current conditions. A continuation would signal scope for a move towards 95.235, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 95.800, the Apr 19 high. A break would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 96.110, the Dec 28 high.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GS Continue To Expect Two Fed Cuts This Year
- Writing on today's payrolls report, Goldman Sachs note that “Job growth remained rapid in the healthcare industry but slowed sharply across leisure and government, raising the possibility that rehiring in those two sectors has mostly run its course.”
- “The household survey was soft, with the unemployment rate increasing 0.1pp to 3.9%, driven by a 25k increase in household employment.”
- “Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys now stands at 189k, though we estimate that counting immigration fully would boost this by 20k.”
- “Our Q1 wage tracker stands at +4.5% on a quarterly annualized basis and +4.3% on a year-over-year basis.”
- “We continue to expect two rate cuts this year, in July and November.”
USDCAD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3687 @ 16:21 BST May 3
- SUP 1: 1.3622 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3610 Low May 3
- SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
Despite the latest pullback in USDCAD, a bullish trend condition remains intact for now and the move lower appears to be a correction. The pair has recently cleared 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 highs, strengthening a bullish theme. Note too, that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Key support to watch is 1.3622, 50-day EMA. This average has today been pierced, but remains intact as a support.
