OIL: Oil Summary At European Close: Crude Rises
Mar-07 16:18
Crude has risen today after Trump threatened ‘large scale’ sanctions and tariffs on Russia. Prices eased back somewhat after a headline stating Putin was ready to agree to a temporary truce in Ukraine. Prices remain set for a weekly decline amid trade tensions and an OPEC+ supply increase scheduled for April.
- Brent MAY 25 up 1.8% at 70.69$/bbl
- WTI APR 25 up 1.7% at 67.48$/bbl
- Truth social post from Trump today threatened sanctions/tariffs on Russia due to its current actions against Ukraine on the battlefield.
- Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine, provided there is progress towards a final peace agreement, Bloomberg reports.
- Saudi Aramco has cut its OSP for Arab Light Crude for April by $0.4/bbl, to $3.50/bbl above the Oman/Dubai benchmark, Bloomberg reports. This has raised the prospect for improved demand in Asia.
- The US delayed its 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for goods covered by the USMCA yesterday.
- Volumes of Kazakh crude flowing to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in February amounted to 100k mt, a 21% drop on the month, Interfax said citing Kaztransoil.
- Expanded oil production at Tengiz is planned for the H2, affording Kazakhstan the opportunity to meet its OPEC+ commitments, the deputy energy minister of Kazakhstan said, cited by Interfax.
- China's crude oil imports fell 5% y/y in the first two months of 2025 to 83.85m tons, or 10.38mbpd, from 10.74mbpd in the same period last year, according to General Administration of Customs data.
- India has made its first crude import deal with Argentina in eight years, aiming to expand its sourcing network and increase ties with non-OPEC suppliers, Platts said.
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FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $594 MLN FROM $64.000 BLN TOTAL
Feb-05 16:15
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $594 MLN FROM $64.000 BLN TOTAL
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Further ERZ5 Upside Flow
Feb-05 16:02
ERZ5 98.1875/98.4375/98.6875 call fly vs. 97.50/97.25 put spread, paper paid 1.5 on 7.5K, buying the call spread.
BOE: Sellside analyst views for the rest of the year
Feb-05 16:01
- All the sellside previews that we read look for a 25bp cut this week.
- After February, the majority of analysts (18/21) look for the next cut to be in May. Deutsche Bank expect a longer pause to August while both Morgan Stanley and TD Securities both look for a March cut (while noting heightened risks of a delay).
- In terms of 2025 outlook, over 60% of analysts (13/21) expect 100bp of cuts across the year to 3.75%. Only NatWest Markets (4.00%) looks for fewer cuts (despite this being the closest forecast to market pricing). Most remaining analysts (6/21) are equally split between 3.50% and 3.25% (i.e. considerably larger number of cuts than markets price).
- In terms of terminal rate, the majority of analysts 17/21 (81%) have their base case in a 3.00-3.75% range, almost evenly split. Other than NatWest Markets (4.00%) other outliers are to the downside. The mean terminal rate is 3.27%.
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