OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products Summary at European Close: Cracks Fall

Feb-19 16:19

Diesel cracks spreads and time spreads have continued to weaken today, continuing the general down trend since Feb. 9. Diesel cracks have no erased almost all of February’s earlier gains.

  • US gasoline crack down -0.6$/bbl at 17.89$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 38.02$/bbl
  • European gasoline remains “overall bearish” with “persistent length” and “inevitable export constraints” eventually limiting upside to regional cracks according to Kpler last week.
  • Exxon Mobil shut the 83kbpd CDU at the 270kbpd Port Jerome refinery in France on 16 February, according to a WoodMackenzie alert.
  • Ineos halted the 110kbpd CDU at the 210kbpd Grangemouth refinery on 16 February according to WoodMackenzie.
  • Marathon Petroleum’s 66kb/d Salt Lake City refinery in Utah has begun shutting units at its South End section for a multiunit turnaround according to Bloomberg sources.
  • Russian oil processing rates stood at 5.16mbpd in the second week of February, down by 94kbpd on the week, sources told Bloomberg.
  • Russia’s USt-Luga condensate processing facility partially restarted between February 8-14 according to Bloomberg sources.
  • West African fuel supply is set for a significant boost in the coming years because of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and capacity growth from NNPC according to FGE.
  • US average gasoline prices have risen for the fourth straight week, up 8.7 cents/gal to $3.26/gal, according to GasBuddy.
  • Chinese Travel demand during the Lunar New Year holiday exceeded pre-pandemic levels, adding to signs that consumption in China is improving, according to Bloomberg.

Historical bullets

MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B

Jan-19 21:00



  • MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
  • US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$126.1B

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

Jan-19 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
  • RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
  • RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
  • RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
  • PRICE: 1.3465 @ 16:22 GMT Jan 19
  • SUP 1: 1.3407/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
  • SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
  • SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
  • SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3459. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started Dec 27 last year and has opened 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.3608, the Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low. Initial support is at 1.3407, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

Jan-19 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
  • RES 1: 0.6639 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6584 @ 16:20 GMT Jan 19
  • SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
  • SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
  • SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
  • SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s bearish price action. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6639, the 50-day EMA.