OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products Summary at European Close: Cracks Fall
Diesel cracks spreads and time spreads have continued to weaken today, continuing the general down trend since Feb. 9. Diesel cracks have no erased almost all of February’s earlier gains.
- US gasoline crack down -0.6$/bbl at 17.89$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 38.02$/bbl
- European gasoline remains “overall bearish” with “persistent length” and “inevitable export constraints” eventually limiting upside to regional cracks according to Kpler last week.
- Exxon Mobil shut the 83kbpd CDU at the 270kbpd Port Jerome refinery in France on 16 February, according to a WoodMackenzie alert.
- Ineos halted the 110kbpd CDU at the 210kbpd Grangemouth refinery on 16 February according to WoodMackenzie.
- Marathon Petroleum’s 66kb/d Salt Lake City refinery in Utah has begun shutting units at its South End section for a multiunit turnaround according to Bloomberg sources.
- Russian oil processing rates stood at 5.16mbpd in the second week of February, down by 94kbpd on the week, sources told Bloomberg.
- Russia’s USt-Luga condensate processing facility partially restarted between February 8-14 according to Bloomberg sources.
- West African fuel supply is set for a significant boost in the coming years because of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and capacity growth from NNPC according to FGE.
- US average gasoline prices have risen for the fourth straight week, up 8.7 cents/gal to $3.26/gal, according to GasBuddy.
- Chinese Travel demand during the Lunar New Year holiday exceeded pre-pandemic levels, adding to signs that consumption in China is improving, according to Bloomberg.
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MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$126.1B
USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 1.3465 @ 16:22 GMT Jan 19
- SUP 1: 1.3407/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
- SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
- SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope
USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3459. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started Dec 27 last year and has opened 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.3608, the Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low. Initial support is at 1.3407, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6639 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6584 @ 16:20 GMT Jan 19
- SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
- SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s bearish price action. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6639, the 50-day EMA.
