OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Diesel Crack Sell-Off
Jan-22 19:32
US diesel cracks have sold off today, despite US refinery outages squeezing USGC supply. The thawing of temperatures and with it, refinery restarts is likely to be bearish, while a possible reopening of the Red Sea could drive down freight rates.
- US gasoline crack down 0.9$/bbl at 12.2$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 2.1$/bbl at 26.52$/bbl
- EIA product inventories forecasts: Gasoline: +1.114m bbl (bbg), +1.9m bbl (WSJ), +2.3m bbl (Reuters). Distillates: -4k bbl (bbg), +300k bbl (WSJ), -10k bbl (Reuters)
- Citgo’s Corpus Christi refinery reported flaring due to compressor issues at the West Plant coker, according to Bloomberg citing a TCEQ filing.
- Motiva’s 626k b/d Port Arthur refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast lost power to some process units Jan. 22 because of winter weather conditions: TCEQ.
- There was a process interruption in one of the units at Suncor’s 86k b/d Sarnia refinery, Reuters reported.
- Pemex’s 340k b/d Olmeca (Dos Bocas) refinery will finish its planned repairs in early Feb instead of late Jan: IIR
- CVR Energy said a fire broke out in the naphtha hydrotreater unit at its 115k b/d Coffeyville, Kansas, refinery.
- The outages at some USGC refineries are bullish for USGC diesel and to a lesser extent, gasoline, Platts said.
- Europe is on course for the smallest seaborne diesel imports in seven years, according to Bloomberg.
- Abating Houthi attacks in the Red Sea will be bearish for diesel due to a potential drop in freight rates: FGE.
- Italy’s 200k b/d Augusta refinery plans to halt its FCC unit from end of January for about two-months of planned maintenance.
- China's oil product demand is projected to decline to 382m mt in 2025: CNPC's ETRI
- Port of Fujairah oil product inventories fell 13% in the week to Jan. 20: FOIZ.
- MNI COMMODITY WEEKLY: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJsdgCMnuUI6a1jKxt0Eg~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x67HXp-tptIPjO1OcQ
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Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
Dec-23 19:30
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj f the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 157.93 High Dec 20
- PRICE: 157.13 @ 16:38 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 155.89/153.36 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.13/150.90 50-day EMA / Low Dec 10
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 153.36, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
NATO: Israel-Egypt Gas Flows Exceed 1bcf/d in Nov: MEES
Dec-23 19:02
Egypt’s imports of Israeli gas hit an 8-month high of 1.02 bcf/d in November, according to MEES.
- This helped Cairo to cut its need for spot LNG cargoes, with several cargoes due for Q4 delivery pushed into Q1 2025.
- This was the first time Egypt’s imports of Israeli gas exceeded 1 bcf/d since hitting a record 1.065 bcf/d in April.
- Flows fell below 900 mcf/d for June and July amid Israel’s own summer power peak demand, MEES said.
COMMODITIES: Crude, Gold Dip Amid Stronger Dollar
Dec-23 19:02
- Crude has edged lower today, with pressure from a stronger USD dollar as the market quietens down towards the Christmas period.
- WTI Feb 25 is down by 0.2% at $69.3/bbl.
- Earlier, Roi Kais at Kan reported on X, per Saudi-owned Al-Sharq TV channel, that "there is significant progress," toward a Gaza ceasefire-for-hostage deal, "but there are still issues in dispute."
- A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and sights are still on $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $71.97, the Nov 7 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has declined by 0.5% today to $2,611/oz.
- The sharp move lower in gold last week undermined the recent bullish theme, and a resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2,536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- However, moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the recent sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2,639.9, the 20-day EMA.
- Copper has also dipped by 0.2% to $409/lb, keeping the red metal close to its lowest levels since last August.
- A bearish trend condition in copper futures is intact, with attention on $401.35, the Aug 7 low and a bear trigger.
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