OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Product Exports from Tuapse to Fall 21.7% in Sep.

Irish HICP headline inflation rose by 0.2pp to 1.8% Y/Y in August, its highest rate since April. It came with monthly inflation of 0.3% M/M. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food inflation (i.e. a proxy for core) also firmed two tenths to 1.9% Y/Y in August.

• Energy inflation of -0.1% Y/Y marked a slight increase from the -0.3% Y/Y in July. It came as energy prices fell -0.3% M/M, similar to expectations for August on a Eurozone-wide basis more broadly.
• Food meanwhile accelerated to a firm 5.0% Y/Y, up from 4.6% in July.
• "Transport costs have fallen by 0.5% in the month and decreased by 2.4% in the 12 months to August 2025", the statistics office adds.

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Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump has no public events in his diary for Labor Day.
• A federal court considering Fed Governor Lisa Cook's request for a temporary restraining order to allow her to continue serving on the Fed's board will reconvene on Tuesday. Financial markets may not have fully priced in the risks posed by Trump’s attacks on the Fed.
• A federal appeals court panel ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in using emergency declarations to impose unilateral tariffs on trading partners, upholding a previous ruling from the Court of International Trade in New York City.
• Middle-income households appear to be losing confidence in their financial outlook.
• The probability of a government shutdown in October ticked up after Trump informed Congress that he is seeking to undo another $4.9 billion of appropriated funding via an unconventional 'pocket' rescission.
• Today marks Trump’s informal deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to make progress on a peace deal with Ukraine.
• European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal remain open to diplomacy with Tehran, despite triggering 'snapback' sanctions.
• Analysts are uncertain about the strategic objective of the US Navy's aggressive forward posture off the coast of Venezuela.
• Poll of the Day: A 76-point partisan gap on the 'direction of the country' is the highest ever recorded by Gallup.

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF

Some underperformance for BTPs was noted into the mandate announcement for the dual 7- & 30-Year BTP syndication, leaving Italian paper as the underperformer at the 10-Year point.

• Still, moves are modest, with BTPs less than 0.5bp wider on the day vs. Bunds (vs. little changed to 1bp of tightening in other major EGB spreads vs. Bunds). The syndication was well within the realm of possibilities, as outlined in our daily/weekly issuance documents, explaining the lack of meaningful market move.
• Bunds have also ticked lower over the last hour or so, with no overt headline drivers noted. This week’s uptick in EGB supply, and the impending pricing of the EFSF syndication, provide headwinds for regional bonds.
• Bear steepening seen on the German curve, with yields 1.5-3.0bp higher, 30s on track for a fresh cycle closing high above 108bp. The March ’19 high (111.78bp) presents the next upside target of note.