OIL: EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - week to Jun 28
Jul-03 14:32
- w/w change week ending Jun 28
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EQUITIES: High Beta, Tech Outperform Core Indices
Jun-03 14:31
- Stock futures lost some ground on the back of the poorer-than-expected ISM manufacturing release which, while detailing a slower-than-expected manufacturing sector, still highlighted stubborn issues with prices.
- The e-mini S&P is off highs, but remains in minor positive territory on the session, whereas the DJIA-mini is lower by close to 0.2%. Outperformance persists in high beta names, tech and the NASDAQ-100 following the rally of as much as 85% in Gamestop shares - driven by a resumption of the meme-stock rally.
- NYSE Equities are still investigating a technical issue having received reports - the exchange reports that additional information will follow "as soon as possible".
STIR: Modest Dovish Fed Repricing On ISM Survey
Jun-03 14:28
The dovish repricing in FOMC-dated OIS extends a little on the back of the disappointing ISM manufacturing survey, but the move is modest and off extremes already.
- End of ’24 pricing moves to ~40bp of cuts vs. 37bp pre-data, while a full 25bp cut is now fully discounted through the end of the Nov FOMC.
- In terms of the breakdown, the rate of expansion in the prices paid component eased more than expected, but remain comfortably above the breakeven 50 mark, while the employment sub-metric unexpectedly jumped back above 50.
- The mix of a softer headline reading and still elevated price metrics chimes with the trend in the recent survey data (including MNI’s Chicago PMI release from Friday), although the unexpected expansionary print in the employment sub-metric probably limits the dovish feedthrough.
- A reminder that we saw the final round of pre-FOMC higher-for-longer Fedspeak over the weekend, via an FT interview with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (he suggested that the Fed likely to hold rates at current levels “for an extended period time”). The Fed is now in its pre-meeting blackout period.
- Such Fedspeak and the early ’24 inflation data (save April’s PCE and CPI readings) leave FOMC-dated OIS at the hawkish end of the early ’24 range.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'24 5Y Selling Into Post Data Bid
Jun-03 14:21
- -5,000 FVU4 106-07, through 106-07.25 post time bid at 1011:00ET, DV01 $210,000. Contract trades 106-06.5 last (+13) vs. 106-08.5 high.
