GILTS: Off Lows But Bears Remain In Control

• RES 4: $4600.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $4595.2 - High May 29 
• RES 2: $4507.1 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 2 - Jun 30 bear leg
• RES 1: $4435.3 - High Aug 7 
• PRICE: $4372.4 @ 07:27 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $4202.5/4153.5- 50- and 20-day EMAs 
• SUP 2: $3996.1/3943.3 - Low Jul 29 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3900.0 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 2025

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact for now although it is worth noting that the daily condition is overbought. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards $4507.1, the 38.2% retracement of the Mar 2 - Jun 30 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $3943.3, the Jun 30 low.  Initial firm support to watch is $4202.5, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would allow the oversold condition to unwind.

• The German Bund is making an attempt at the initial target area noted this Month, the 124.42/124.22 gap, given that as expected there are no end in sight in the Middle East.
• The Rhetoric has firmed from both sides, Trump is now demanding reparations from Iran.
• US Yields have also ticked higher, with the 10yr back above 4.70%, but short of the next resistance seen at 4.75%.
• This level is slightly higher today, at 108.01 in TYU6.
• The 20yr is quoted circa 5.27% and Desks will be keeping a close eye on the 5.30% level.
• There are no Tier 1 Data for the session, US Weekly ADP won't be a Market mover as the Globe awaits the US CPI Tomorrow.
• SUPPLY: Germany €6bn 2031 (equates to 57.2k Bobl) will weigh into the bidding deadline. US sells $58bn of 3yr notes.
• SPEAKERS: {us} Fed Goolsbee.

• RES 4: $110.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $101.40 - 0.764 proj of the Dec 16 ‘25 - May 18 - Jul 2 swing
• RES 2: $99.12 - High May 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $91.36/95.30 - High Jul 31 / 23 and key resistance
• PRICE: $87.94 @ 07:06 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $78.11 - Low Aug 5  
• SUP 2: $76.48 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 2 - 23 bull leg   
• SUP 3: $70.67 - Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $68.39 - 76.4% retrace of the Dec 16 ‘25 - May 18 bull leg

The latest recovery in Brent futures highlights a possible reversal of the bear leg that started on Jul 23 - a correction. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a retracement towards $76.48, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open $70.67, the Jul 2 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $95.30, the Jul 23 high. A breach of this level would resume the uptrend.