US: Odds Of Trump Firing Powell Spikes After CBS Highlights White House Meeting

The implied probability of President Donald Trump firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell spiked to 30% in the last few minutes, after CBS highlighted comments made during a closed-door meeting yesterday. 

• While Trump has repeatedly applied pressure on Powell, in an apparent effort to force him to resign, there hasn't been an obvious route for removing Powell from office before May 2026. AP notes the Supreme Court signaled Trump doesn’t have the authority to remove Powell over an interest rate disagreement.
• Trump officials recently hinted that they could use an alleged misuse of funds during a renovation project at Fed premises as a justification for dismissal.
• Trump told reporters yesterday Powell is spending $2.5B "to build a little extension onto the Fed.” Trump said when asked if that was a fireable offence: “I think it sort of is,” per CNN.
• Axios notes that OMB Director Vought sent Powell a letter on July 10, giving him seven business days to respond to allegations, potentially giving Trump time to attempt action before the next Fed meeting, on July 29.
• NEC director Kevin Hassett, one of the favourites to replace Powell, told reporters on Sunday that Trump is “looking into” whether the renovations provide authority to fire Powell.
• Deutsche Bank warned Friday that investors are overlooking the risk of Trump removing Powell, per Business Insider, describing it as, "the market's most underestimated risk”. 

Figure 1: Will Trump Fire Fed Chair Powell in 2025

Source: Polymarket