NZD: NZD/USD - Trades Heavy Around 0.5850

The AUD/USD had a range overnight of 0.7053-0.7074, Asia is currently trading around 0.7054. The pair stalled again toward the NFP highs overnight and has drifted back toward 0.7050. The debacle in the Middle-East is just getting more farcical but the key point is Oil is still not flowing and it doesn't look likely to start anytime soon. A short Oil market is starting to feel the pinch and with the move back above $80(+5.05%) for WTI I am surprised by the lack of reaction in other Asset classes. Perhaps it's just exhaustion and the market is tired of being so chopped up but the response from both Stocks and FX has been muted to say the least. On the day, the AUD is challenging its resistance in the 0.7050-0.7080 area. The first support is now back toward 0.6990-0.7020 and I suspect dips in the AUD could initially be supported in the short-term as headwinds for the USD continue to mount. I have been skewed toward fading this rally but will need this move to top out up here soon and challenge the 0.6950 area if that scenario is to play out. RBA today but it is unlikely we will get too much of a surprise.

• MNI RBA Preview-August 2026: Hold, Price Pressures Persist. Download Full Preview Here
• The RBA announces its decision today and is likely to keep rates at 4.35% with a unanimous vote for the second consecutive meeting following lower-than-expected Q2 underlying inflation, tightening of financial conditions and easing in demand growth as expected. 
• The decision is still likely to be a hawkish hold given underlying inflation remains well above the top of the 2-3% target band, persistent capacity pressures, uncertainty continues to be elevated and retail fuel prices are up again.
• Given that Bullock said the economy has developed “broadly as expected”, forecast revisions included this month are likely to be moderate and concentrated in the near-term.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.7035(AUD466m), 0.7075(AUD340m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6800(AUD519m Aug 12), 0.7000(AUD874m Aug 13), 0.7100(AUD620m Aug 14) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 37 Points
• Data/Event: NAB Business Confidence, RBA

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• Hong Kong to Sell HK$16 Bn 182-Day Bills
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$67.167 Bn 91-Day Bills
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$3 Bn 364-Day Bills
• Thailand to Sell 30 Bn Thb of 2029 Bonds
• Malaysia to Sell MYR3 Bn 2055 Bonds
• Indonesia to Sell 5.625% 2033 Sukuk Bonds
• Indonesia to Sell 5% 2030 Sukuk Bonds
• Indonesia to Sell 5.875% 2028 Sukuk Bonds
• Indonesia to Sell 6.875% 2049 Sukuk Bonds
• Indonesia to Sell 242-Day Sukuk Bills
• Indonesia to Sell 6.5% 2039 Sukuk Bonds
• Indonesia to Sell 26-Day Sukuk Bills
• Indonesia to Sell 174-Day Sukuk Bills
• Philippines to Sell PHP30 Bn 6.625% 2033 Bonds
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 32-Day Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 92-Day Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 187-Day Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 365-Day Bills 

source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI