NZD: NZD/USD - Solid Support Around 0.6000, Can It Now Push Higher ?

The NZD had a range overnight of 0.6030 - 0.6057, Asia is trading around 0.6050. The NZD found solid support back towards the 0.6030 area overnight as US stocks continue to press higher and the market positions itself for the US CPI tonight. The NZD is pressing its recent highs looking to  potentially signal an extension higher.  

• Bloomberg - “The World Bank cut its global-growth forecast for this year to 2.3% from 2.7% previously, in what would mark the weakest pace in 17 years outside of the 2009 and 2020 recessions. It also warned that economic expansion in the first seven years of this decade is on track to be the slowest for any period since the 1960s.”
• The NZD continues to find solid demand back towards the 0.6000 area as dips remain well supported, aided by the more positive risk backdrop.
• The support back towards 0.5850 has held very well, and while this continues to hold expect buyers to be around on dips. A clear break above 0.6050/0.6100 could provide the spark for the next leg higher. The market remains short and above here they could be forced to pare back.
• CFTC Data showed Asset managers maintaining their shorts, while the leverage actually added to their shorts last week.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6100(NZD353m), 0.6145(NZD348m). Upcoming Close Strikes : none

• Data/Event : Net Migration

  Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7 
• PRICE: 95.740 @ 16:04 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures rallied well on the RBA rate decision, reversing a small part of recent weakness. Recent price action pressured prices through to new pullback lows last week. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition. To the upside, a recovery of recent losses would shift attention to resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.

TYU5 reopens at 110-06+, unchanged from closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.

• Overnight the US 10-year yield had a range of 4.4381% - 4.4798%, closing around 4.47%. 
• Treasury yields ended mixed overnight, the long-end ended a little lower helping the yield curve flatten (2s10s -2.07 at 44.758, 5s30s -1.58 at 84.005).
• MNI US DATA: Small Businesses Increasingly Planning To Raise Prices. Price components in today’s NFIB small business survey reinforce a view that May CPI – released tomorrow – might not see stronger tariff-driven inflation until the summer months. Whilst actual price changes held steady back close to their 2024 average, the breadth of planned price increases tilted higher again for the highest in just over a year even if it's still markedly lower than the surge in 2021/22. 
• MNI US DATA: Softer Redbook Retail Sales Notes Price-Conscious Shoppers Amid Tariffs. Johnson Redbook retail sales showed some signs of slowing in the first week of June, rising 4.7% Y/Y (week ending Jun 7), vs a targeted gain of 5.7%. A continued rise at the current pace would mark the softest month since January, and a continued deceleration from 6.7% in April (was 5.5% in May).
• The 10-year yield held its support around the 4.35% area last week. While this level holds focus will remain on potentially extending higher, CPI tonight will dictate direction.