NZD: NZDUSD - 0.5900 Continues To Support
May-01 22:27
The NZD had a range overnight of 0.5894 - 0.5938, Asia is opening around 0.5905.
- The USD generally traded higher overnight as it began to play catch up to the moves seen in US stocks. The NZD though continues to hold up pretty well for now considering this move.
- Bloomberg - “Employment in New Zealand may have leveled out, but there's no sign of a recovery for the struggling labor market.”
- “The monthly employment and weekly payrolls readings suggest labor demand remains weaker than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's projections.”
- “The data point to downside risk to the 1Q25 labor market data and reinforce the view that the RBNZ will deliver deeper rate cuts than it now projects.”
- Note Q1 NZ jobs data is due next week on Wednesday.
- The NZD continues to find decent demand around 0.5900. With Apple and Amazon disappointing this morning it could be tough for risk to continue to push higher initially, so the USD could give back some of those gains in our session.
- The price action continues to suggest that dips will probably find demand, first support on the day is 0.5900 then 0.5800/50.
- CFTC data show Asset managers have slowed their pace of buying last week, Leveraged funds though have been using dips to reduce their shorts.
- Data : NZ Building permits, US NFP will be closely watched
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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US TSYS: Futures Weaker After Latest Tariff headlines
Apr-01 22:26
TYM5 is 111-16, -0-08+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
- Overnight, a decent NY session for US tsys ahead of Liberation (tariff) Day announcements. Accounts squared positions ahead of Wednesday afternoon's announcement from the White House (1600ET est).
- There was early FI support after lower-than-expected JOLTS job openings, quits and layoffs higher than expected. ISMs mixed with Mfg, new orders and employment lower than expected while prices paid jumped.
- Washington Post reports that "White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20 percent on at least most imports to the United States, three people familiar with the matter said".
- A short while ago, the WSJ published headlines about a potential new tariff option being prepared by the USTR for Trump.
- Also, a CNBC reporter posted on X, citing Republican Rep. Kevin Hern, that the tariff rates announced Wednesday will be the highest they will go and countries can then take steps to bring the tariffs down.
- Moreover, the president’s team is exploring using trillions of dollars in new import revenue for a tax dividend or refund, people familiar with the matter said." WAPO.
JPY: Wedged Between Key Levels Ahead of US Tariff Announcement
Apr-01 22:23
USD/JPY remained within Monday ranges for Tuesday's session. Yen did manage a 0.20% rise for Tuesday's session around mid range from a relative G10 standpoint. USD/JPY tracks around 149.85/90 in early Wednesday trade, up around 0.15% from end Tuesday levels in NY.
- For USD/JPY technicals, the primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 150.86 - is intact. The first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish. before this we have recent lows of 148.70 from the end of March.
- Markets await Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement later on Wednesday. We did see a better global equity tone, with major EU and US indices higher, which likely help drag USD/JPY from lows under 149.00.
- Still, US data was mostly on the softer side relative to expectations. US yields finished lower in the Tsy space, the 10yr back to 4.17%. US-JP yield differentials are tracking lower, the 10yr spread last at +267bps.
- How the tariff announcement impacts broader risk appetit, particularly in the equity space, may be the biggest driver of yen in the near term.
- Locally today we have March monetary base figures. Note as well in the option expiry space the following for NY cut later: Y149.80-95($577mln).
OIL: Rally Stalls As Demand Impact From Tariffs Worries Market
Apr-01 22:17
Oil prices peaked following the upward revision to the US PMI but then fell with the disappointing ISM and job vacancy data. The impact of increased trade protectionism on global demand has worried the market for some time and the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday in conjunction with softer US data brought these concerns to the fore again. The USD index was 0.1% lower.
- WTI fell 0.5% to $71.14/bbl, close to the intraday low of $71.03. It rose to a high of $72.10, above initial resistance at $71.83, with the PMI data and then trended lower from there. The benchmark has started today around $71.19. Key resistance is at $72.91. Initial support is at $68.78, 20-day EMA.
- Brent is 0.4% lower at $74.48/bbl after a high of $75.29, which breached initial resistance at $75.04. The bull trigger at $76.26 remains intact but a break would strengthen the bullish condition. The recent rally has undermined a medium-term bearish condition.
- Current uncertainty is particularly impacting the oil market with worries that tariffs will weigh on global demand but comments regarding tariffs on Russia, including secondary ones on buyers of its crude, plus threats made against Iran and Venezuela, have clouded the supply outlook. Geopolitical risks generally remain elevated.
- Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude stock build of 6mn barrels last week with 2.2mn at Cushing, according to people familiar with the API data. Product inventories continued to decline though with gasoline down 1.6mn and distillate 11k. Official EIA data is out later today.
