US: NY Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
NY Fed notes the decline in the WEI to 1.74% from 1.90% prior is "due to a decrease in the staffing index (relative to the same time last year), which more than offset a drop in continuing unemployment insurance claims."
- "As an alternative measure, the data for the week ended April 9 indicates a 2.68 percentage point decrease in activity relative to February 2020."
NY Federal Reserve/MNI
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US: WH Presser With National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan Underway Shortly
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is shortly due to deliver remarks and take questions at the White House press conference.
- A livestream of the presser is available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdLcbiJ9Dt0&featur...
- Sullivan is expected to condemn Russian plans to hold referenda in occupied Ukrainian territories.
- Sullivan may also seek to clarify US policy on Taiwan after comments from President Biden suggesting that US troops would be dispatched to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island.
- White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is expected to take question on Biden's comments over the weekend appearing to declare an end to the COVID-19 pandemic.
OUTLOOK: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC Policy Annc, SEP, Chairman Powell
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Sep-21 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.2%, --)
- Sep-21 1000 Existing Home Sales (4.81M, 4.69M); MoM (-5.9%, -2.5%)
- Sep-21 1130 US Tsy $30B 119D Bill CMB auction (912796ZL6)
- Sep-21 1400 FOMC policy annc includes Summary of Economic Projections
- Sep-21 1430 Fed Chairman Powell press conference
US TSYS: Market Roundup, Yields Clawing Higher, 2s Near 4% Pre-FOMC
Tsys heavy in late morning trade, gradually climbing off session lows over the last hour when Tsy yields tapped multi-year highs: 2s 3.9877% high (notably earlier - yld curves bear steepening as short end outperforms bonds); 5s at 3.7748% high; 10s at 3.6004% high; 30Y at 3.6123%). Much better volumes (TYZ2 >975k) w/ Japan and London back from long weekend.
- Technicals for Dec 10Y futures currently at 113-26.5 (-17): TYZ2 breached key support at 114-06, the Jun 14 low to 113-20.5 session low. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and strengthens the underlying bearish condition. This paves the way for a test of the 114.00 handle where a break would open 113-19, the Jun 19 2009 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 116-03+, the 20-day EMA.
- Little initial react to mixed data: Housing starts much better than expected at 1.575M vs. 1.460M est (+12.2% MoM vs. +1.0% est) while Building Permits miss target w/ 1.517M units vs. 1.621M est (-10.0% MoM vs. -3.8% est).
- Block sales in 5s and 10s, curve flattener unwinds exacerbated first half moves, market settling in ahead the $12B 20Y bond auction re-open.
- Current cross-asset levels: Stocks weaker but off lows, SPX futures ESZ2 at 3887.25 (-30.0), Crude weaker/near lows (WTI at 83.5) Gold as well (1666.15 -9.69).
