MEXICO: Nominal Wages Rise 6.6% Y/y In July

The below headlines from Reuters referring to five ECB policymakers, although the bottom line is in keeping with market pricing: ESTR ECB-dated OIS currently shows 0.5bp of cuts for July before a cumulative 11bp for Sept and 22.5bp for Dec. 

• “ECB TO DISCUSS MORE NEGATIVE SCENARIO NEXT WEEK THAN ENVISAGED IN JUNE AFTER TRUMP'S LATEST TARIFF THREAT, SOURCES SAY
• ECB STILL SEEN HOLDING RATES AT JULY 24 MEETING AS POLICYMAKERS RELUCTANT TO ACT ON A THREAT ALONE, SOURCES SAY
• ANY ECB RATE CUT DISCUSSION REMAINS PUSHED BACK TO SEPTEMBER, SOURCES SAY” - Reuters
• A reminder from the piece: "the 30% duty floated by Trump is steeper than the ECB had anticipated even under the most negative of three scenarios for the euro zone economy it released last month."

• RES 4: 112-23   High May 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: 112-15   61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 2: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 111-13+/111-28 High Jul 10 / High Jul 3  
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-21+ @ 16:56 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 110-20+/17 Low Jul 14 / 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg       
• SUP 2: 110-10+ Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 110-03   76.4% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11 

Treasury futures maintain a softer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached the 50-day EMA, at 110-31. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key support. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that it also remains possible that the recent move down is a correction. Resistance to watch is at 111-13+, Jul 10 high.    

• Ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release, we note that the broad Bloomberg consensus looks for both core and headline CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in June although unrounded estimates suggest a risk of rounding lower.
• The below estimates have a median of 0.24% M/M for core CPI (average 0.25) after 0.13% M/M, whilst headline is seen at 0.25% M/M (average 0.26%) after 0.08% M/M.
• Early tracking for core PCE currently points to a very similar June reading, with a median across seven estimates of 0.25% M/M after 0.18% in May.
• The full MNI US CPI Preview will be published later today.