EM LATAM CREDIT: New Issue: Chile's Celulosa Arauco (CELARA; Baa3 /BBB-/BBBneg)

Second, manufacturing activity likely pulled back in March. Regional Fed surveys showed a pullback in headline activity indices across 4 of 5 regional Feds (Kansas City was the exception), with NY's Empire standing out with a drop to a 2+ year low.

• The 5 regional Fed survey average of -6.0 was a 6-month low and down more than 9 points vs February.
• That's consistent with a headline ISM Manufacturing reading in the 47-49 area, vs 50.3 in February (as are the combined Empire-Philly surveys' ISM-equivalent underlying measures, which were 48.7 in NY and 50.5 in Philly).
• Current consensus for Tuesday's ISM headline release is 49.5.
• Note the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI also pulled back to sub-50.0 in March in the flash reading (49.8, down 2.9 points from Feb for a 3-month low); MNI Chicago PMI remained contractionary in March at 47.6.

With March's regional Feds having published their manufacturing survey results for March, there are two clear conclusions for the upcoming ISM Manufacturing report (Tuesday 1000ET).

• First, manufacturing prices paid continued to pick up sharply in March, with tariffs an obvious area of concern.
• A simple average of NY/Dallas/Philadelphia/KC Fed prices paid came into the year below 20, but is now up to 43.2 (up 5 points from Feb and almost 20 from January). That is the highest since August 2022, which was a time when ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid was starting to print in the 50s-60s, on the downslope from readings in the 70s and 80s.
• In December 2020, the prior time the regional Fed average was at a comparable level and rising, the ISM equivalent was entering the high 70s-low 80s.
• Current consensus is for March ISM Prices Paid to tick up 2.3 points to 64.7.

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