US NATGAS: New England – Warms But is Still Cooler than Normal

• Crude has surged after President Trump said he will add further tariffs on China but will pause tariffs on non-retaliating countries, bullish for oil as it delays trade frictions.
• WTI May 25 is up by 4.2% at $62.1/bbl.
• The US has raised the tariff on Chinese goods to 125% effective immediately, while also calling for a 90-day delay on others and lowering reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries to 10%.
• For WTI futures, initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
• Meanwhile, spot gold is up by 2.8% at $3,067/oz, unwinding previous losses this week.
• The trend condition in gold remains bullish, and a continuation of gains would refocus attention on $3,196.2, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is $3,167.8, the Apr 3 high.
• Copper has also rallied sharply on the tariff headlines, with the red metal now up by 6.5% at $441/lb.
• Copper remains nearly 18% below its Mar 26 high, however, and earlier Chile Mining Minister Williams said that the government may revise down its annual price estimate for this year. However, she said that beyond trade uncertainties, copper’s supply-demand fundamentals remain strong.
• For copper futures, initial firm resistance is seen at $451.15, the Feb 28 low and a recent breakout level.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.37/164.19 High Apr 7 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 159.80 @ 15:45 GMT Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 158.30 Low Apr 7   
• SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28  

EURJPY continues to trade in a volatile manner. Recent weakness still appears corrective, and the strong rally off Monday’s low reinforces this theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, Apr 7 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger.      

The EU is implied to be included in the US's announcement of a 90-day pause/10% rate, per a White House official cited by Bloomberg - though the article doesn't address the Mexico/Canada ambiguity mentioned earlier: "Countries that were hit with the higher, reciprocal duties that went into effect Wednesday will now be taxed at the earlier 10% baseline rate applied to other nations, with the exception of China, according to a White House official."

• Ex-CEA Chief Economist Ernie Tedeschi makes the following observation, on X.com: "Folks, a 10% broad tariff on everything plus 125% on China, is a 25pp increase in the effective tariff rate, even accounting for USMCA exemptions. That's almost exactly where 2025 tariff policy was this morning. It was just less concentrated on China & more weighted overseas".
• That math checks out, roughly speaking: China represented around 13% of US goods imports in 2024, so every 10% effective increase to the Chinese tariff rate = 1.3pp to the US overall effective import tariff rate. The pullback in the ex-China rate to a blanket 10% (not taking into account sectoral carveouts) for the 87% more or less offsets the 70bop China increase from 54% to 125%.