STIR: Net Short Setting Dominated On SOFR Strip On Wednesday

Jan-23 11:37

OI data suggests that net short setting dominated on the SOFR futures strip on Wednesday, as most contracts finished lower.

Only isolated pockets of net long cover and a single round of net long setting (SFRU5) were seen.

	22-Jan-25	21-Jan-25	Daily OI Change		Daily OI Change In Packs
SFRZ4	1,063,021	1,074,090	-11,069	Whites	+22,435
SFRH5	1,194,267	1,170,150	+24,117	Reds	+27,785
SFRM5	1,017,359	1,013,060	+4,299	Greens	+17,461
SFRU5	791,000	785,912	+5,088	Blues	+4,475
SFRZ5	1,010,200	993,654	+16,546
SFRH6	692,864	685,892	+6,972
SFRM6	658,036	658,725	-689
SFRU6	621,370	616,414	+4,956
SFRZ6	724,560	706,189	+18,371
SFRH7	486,904	488,348	-1,444
SFRM7	405,489	405,086	+403
SFRU7	294,562	294,431	+131
SFRZ7	269,519	268,221	+1,298
SFRH8	210,535	208,658	+1,877
SFRM8	175,949	175,028	+921
SFRU8	113,685	113,306	+379

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Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: US 10yr Yield tests 4.60%

Dec-24 11:36

EURUSD edges to 1.0400, with a broader bid going through for the EUR, testing session high versus the CHF, CAD, NOK, SEK, and AUD.
Closest resistance for the EUR is against the NOK, at 11.892, last Week's high and the highest printed level since the 6th November.
The Dollar remains in the Green overall, TYH5 is sold in 4k to push the contract through its session low.
The US 10yr is again testing the 4.60% handle, and the Next area of interest in Yield is at 4.6357%, which would equate to 108.10.

US TSY OPTIONS: Large Feb'25 10Y Put Spread

Dec-24 11:31

20,000 TYG5 107.5/108.5 put spread, around 24 ref 108-16.5

US-RUSSIA: Biden Weighing New Sanctions Against Russian Energy Sector

Dec-24 11:24

The Washington Post reports, citing sources 'familiar with the matter', that US President Joe Biden is weighing 'major new sanctions' against Russia's energy sector, potentially handing President-elect Donald Trump leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine negotiations, expected to take place shortly after Trump takes office on January 20.

The Post reports the sanctions would target the "so-called “dark fleet” of international ships carrying Russian oil to non-Western countries as well as targeted Russian oil exporters, who have not been sanctioned up to now... The options also include revoking a license enabling banks to process Russian energy transactions..."
Peter Harrell, a former senior Biden administration official now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “The goal of a new major sanctions action should be a double-digit decline in [Russia's] export revenue, over a period of six to 12 months,”
Edward Fishman, an advocate for harsher measures targeting Russia's energy revenue at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said: "The Biden administration has been worried about increasing gas prices and worsening inflation. That was the main constraint on their Russia sanctions policy — the domestic ramifications. But the election is over and inflation is under control. The reasons to be this cautious on sanctions don’t apply anymore.”
Bob McNally at Rapidan Energy Group said that although, “...softer global fundamentals... leave room for President Biden and President Trump to tighten sanctions on Russia and Iran, that room is not unlimited,”

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