AMERICAS OIL: Net Bullish Nymex WTI Crude Oil Bets Boosted to 19-Week High

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6456 @ 16:00 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 0.6349 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s strong gains signal the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6349, the 50-day EMA. 

SOFR & Treasury options look two-way/paired as underlying futures continued to gradually extend lows after the bell. Projected rate cut pricing steady in the near term while longer dates retreat vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 steady at -2.1bp, Jul'25 steady at -9.8bp, Sep'25 at -22.8bp (-24.7bp), Oct'25 at -34.8bp (-37.3bp), Dec'25 at -49.6bp (-52.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +5,000 SFRU5 96.62/97.12 call spds, 1.62 ref 95.905
  • +5,000 SFRQ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors, 0.75 ref 95.905
  • +30,000 SFRZ5 95.62/96.00 put spds vs. 0QZ5 95.87/96.25 put spds, 1.75-2.0 db bear curve flattener
  • +20,000 SFRU5 97.50 calls, 1.5
  • -4,000 2QM5 96.12/96.37 put spds, 5.5 ref 96.495
  • Block, 10,000 SFRM6 96.37/98.25 call spds, 42.0 vs. 96.505/0.42%
  • 5,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.81 put spd spd, 2.0 Sep over
  • +5,000 SFRN5 95.50/95.62/95.68/95.81 put condors, 3.0 ref 95.93
  • -4,000 SFRZ5 95.75/96.00 put spds, 9
  • 3,000 SFRV5 95.62/95.81/95.87 put trees ref 96.205
  • Block, 2,500 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 put condors, 0.25 ref 95.705
  • -4,000 SFRU5 96.25/96.75 call spds, 4.5 ref 95.94
  • 4,000 OQK5 96.62/96.87 2x1 put spds ref 96.53
• Treasury Options:
  • 4,500 TUN5 103.75/104 2x3 call spds, 1.5 net ref 103-15.5
  • 3,000 TYN5 108/108.5 put spds 5 ref 110-02.5
  • +5,000 TYU5 133 calls, 33 ref 110-00 to -00.5
  • +1,000 TYM5 110.25/110.75/111.25 2x3x1 call flys, 16
  • -2,000 TYM5 110.25 straddles, 53
  • -7,500 TYM5 109.5 puts, 11
  • 4,200 FVM5 108.75 calls, 2 last
  • 3,200 FVM5 107.5 puts, 18 last
  • -1,250 FVM5 107.5/107.75/108.25 broken put flys, 15 vs. 107-19.5/0.05%
  • +1,000 FVM5 108.25/108.75 call spds, 3.5

• Stocks remain near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed in late Wednesday trade, tech-heavy Nasdaq outperforming as semiconductor makers led gainers for the second consecutive session.
• Stocks have bounced off recent Wednesday session lows after Pres Trump "signed an agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion," according to a fact sheet issued by the White House.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 68.36 points (-0.16%) at 42070.86, S&P E-Minis up 4.25 points (0.07%) at 5908.75, the Nasdaq up 103.6 points (0.5%) at 19113.34.
• Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to outperform in late trade, leading gainers included: Super Micro Computer +17.51%, Advanced Micro Devices +4.31%, NVIDIA +3.92%, Enphase Energy +5.71% and Dell Technologies +2.72%.
• Interactive media and entertainment shares continued to support the Communication Services sector: Alphabet +3.4%, Take-Two Interactive Software +1.51%, Match Group +2.05% and Meta +0.66%.
• On the flipside, Health Care and Utilities continued to underperform, pharmaceuticals weighing on the former: Bio-Techne -6.38%, Revvity -5.09%, Moderna -4.96% and AbbVie -4.76%.
• Shares weighing on the Utility sector included: Eversource Energy -2.45%, Exelon -1.73%, WEC Energy Group -1.37%, Consolidated Edison -1.38% and Constellation Energy -1.62%.