POLAND: NBP Describe October Rate Cut as an "Adjustment"

Headline Inflation: Analysts pencil in small (one tenth) upward revisions to 2025 and 2026 headline inflation projections to 2.1% and 1.7% respectively. 2027 headline inflation is still expected to be on target at 2.0%.

• Higher-than-expected spot energy and food prices are expected to drive the upward revision to 2025 and 2026 headline inflation, albeit offset somewhat by a stronger Euro.
• Analysts are not expecting many revisions to culminate from the EU-US trade deal, while some highlight that the German government's U-turn on a proposed household electricity tax cut will push 2025 and 2026 projections higher.
• While 2025 headline inflation projections are concentrated at 2.0% and 2.1%, there is a larger range for 2026 of 1.5% to 1.9%. This appears to be due to differing expectations around the ECB’s technical assumption cut-off date – which would imply different estimates for oil and gas contributions to inflation revisions.

Core Inflation: Analysts on net do not expect any core inflation forecast revisions through 2027 (2025: 2.4%, 2026: 1.9%, 2027: 1.9%).

• Only one analyst expects a downward revision to the 2025 projection to 2.3%
• For 2026 and 2027, expectations range between 1.8-2.0%.

The ECB's September projections will be compiled by ECB staff (compared to June, which was an aggregate of National Central Bank projections), and will likely shape the tone of Thursday's policy statement and press conference. Analysts do not expect major revisions compared to the June projection round. See below for a summary based on 13 sellside estimates:

GDP: Analysts expect 2025 GDP to be revised up 0.2pp to 1.1%, but for 2026 and 2027 projections to remain unchanged at 1.1% and 1.3% respectively (the former with a risk of an upward revision to 1.2%).

• Carry-over from the stronger-than-expected H1 GDP prints, alongside better near-term activity indicators and lower trade policy uncertainty explain the expected upward revision to 2025 GDP projections. Expectations range between 1.0% and 1.3%.
• Further out, analysts have to weigh the following developments: (i) The EU-US trade deal, which features a higher-than-expected (vs the June baseline) effective tariff rate but allows for lower trade policy uncertainty, (ii) the stronger EUR, which weighs on real exports and (iii) German fiscal spending, for which June assumptions were fairly conservative.
• 2026 expectations range between 1.0% and 1.2%, while 2027 expectations range between 1.2-1.4%.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 09/08 $2.05B NCL Corp $1.025B each: 5.25NC2, 8NC3
• 09/08 $500M Antero Midstream 8NC3
• 09/08 $500M Puget Sound Energy WNG 30Y +115a
• 09/08 $500M Millrose Properties 7NC3 65 
• 09/08 $Benchmark Bank of Nova Scotia 3NC2 +75, 3NC2 SOFR, 6NC5 +100a, 6NC5 SOFR
• 09/08 $Benchmark Equitable America Global Funding 2Y +80a, 2Y SOFR, 7Y +115a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Hewlett Packard 2Y +85a, 3Y +95a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +110a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Elevance 3Y +80a, 7Y +110a, +10Y +125a, 30Y +135a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Wells Fargo 4NC3 +90a, 4NC3 FRN, 11NC10 +115a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Home Depot 3Y +55a, 5Y +70a, 10Y +90a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Korea Development Bank 5Y SOFR+68a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Capital One 6NC5 +120, 11NC10 +145a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Virginia Electric 10 +110a, 30Y +115a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Duke Energy 10Y +120a, 30Y +13a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Danske Bank 6NC5 +105a, 6NC5
• 09/08 $Benchmark Uber +5Y +90a, 10Y +110a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Ares Stategic Inc +3Y, +5Y
• 09/08 $Benchmark Westpac NZ 5Y +85a
• 09/08 $Benchmark Denso 5Y inv calls
• 09/08 $Benchmark PIF 10Y +120a