NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Extends Rally
Feb-12 19:44
Henry Hub reached its highest close since Jan. 27 amid continued support from strong domestic and LNG feedgas demand.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 1.4% at 3.57$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 1.3% at 3.57$/mmbtu
- EIA inventory change forecasts: -91 bcf (bbg), -96 bcf (WSJ), -106 bcf (Reuters)
- US dry natural gas production across 2025 has been revised up 0.1 bcf/d to 104.6 bcf/d while consumption is revised up 0.1 bcf/d at 90.7 bcf/d.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas remains up at record high levels of 15.21bcf/d today compared to 14.85bcf/d over the previous week, according to Bloomberg.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is holding above the previous five-year seasonal range at 114.1bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- The NOAA forecast is relatively unchanged on the day with below normal in central and eastern areas but with warming weather on the west coast into the second week of the outlook.
- US domestic natural gas production dipped slightly to 107.0bcf/d yesterday, Bloomberg shows.
- North Dakota’s associated wellhead natural gas production today is estimated to be down 0.11-0.20 BCFD.”
- Federal regulators on Tuesday approved a proposal from the nation’s largest electric grid operator that could effectively give new natural gas power plants priority in connecting to the grid over renewable energy sources like solar and wind.
- TotalEnergies set to supply Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation with 400k tons/4 cargoes of LNG per year, Bloomberg reports.
- Turkey is experiencing record LNG imports to replace weak pipeline flows amid strong demand, Platts said.
- MNI Gas Weekly: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Gas_Weekly_Global_Gas_Hubs_Set_Bullish_Tone_11b3971212.pdf?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20250212
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COMMODITIES: Crude Extends Gains Amid Russia Sanctions, Precious Metals Decline
Jan-13 19:40
- Crude has extended gains from last week, with WTI at its highest level since last summer, supported by fresh sanctions from the US administration on Russia.
- WTI Feb 25 is up by 2.9% at $78.8/bbl.
- Crude curve backwardation has strengthened significantly after the announcement of the latest US sanctions on Russia risks global supplies.
- New US sanctions against Russia will be retaliated against, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and recent gains have resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high.
- Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high, followed by $80.14, the Apr 12 ’24 high and a key medium-term resistance.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen by 1.1% to $2,660/oz, the yellow metal’s first decline in five sessions.
- Last week’s gains in gold appear corrective for now, although a continuation higher would open $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high. On the downside, initial support is at $2,642.7, the 50-day EMA, followed by $2,583.6, the Dec 19 low.
- Silver is underperforming today, with the precious metal down by 2.7% to $29.6/oz.
- A bear cycle in silver that started Oct 23 remains in play for now, with initial support seen at $28.748, the Dec 19 low, followed by $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
Jan-13 19:36
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-28 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-26/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 107-10+ @ 19:25 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 107-06 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.
PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Roundup: $13.85B to Price Monday
Jan-13 19:14
$13.85B to price Monday, $3B KFW, $2B CADES and others rolled to Tuesday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $2.5B #Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
- 01/13 $2B #Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
- 01/13 $1.75B #Rabobank $700M 3Y +40, $300M 3Y SOFR+60, $750M 8NC7 +100
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $1.2B #Eastern Energy Gas $700M 10Y +105, $500M 30Y +125
- 01/13 $1B #Micron 10Y +102
- 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $1B #Plains All American 10Y +120
- 01/13 $650M Blue Owl Tech Fin 3Y +185
- 01/13 $500M #Apollo Debt Solutions 7Y +185
- 01/13 $750M #Ares Strategic 7Y +175
- 01/13 $Benchmark KHFC 5Y +95a, 5Y SOFR
- May price Tuesday:
- 01/13 $3B KFW +5Y +43a
- 01/14 $2B CADES 5Y SOFR+70a
- 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+46a
- 01/14 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/14 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+90a
- 01/14 $Benchmark IFC 3Y SOFR+33a
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