NATO: NATGAS: Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Slides

Core European yields rose modestly Monday, ahead of UK data and the ECB decision later in the week.

• In a session with limited drivers (and a US cash bond holiday), the afternoon saw opposing forces buffeting core FI in the form of China stimulus details (negative Gilts/Bunds) and Israel conflict flare-up (positive).
• Markets continue to price in well over 90% probability of a 25bp cut from the ECB this week - however, as our preview out today points out, communicating the motivation for such a move will not be straightforward (PDF here).
• On the day, the German curve bear flattened while the UK's bear steepened - both in relatively modest fashion versus the large swings in recent weeks.
• While French yields were little changed after Fitch lowered its rating to Negative from Stable after Friday's close, allowing for 1+bp spread narrowing to Bunds, Belgium underperformed on Moody's revision likewise to Negative (OLOs closed flat to Bund).
• EGB periphery spreads tightened, with BTPs and PGBs outperforming.
• The highlight early Tuesday will be UK labour market data (MNI preview here, including our outlook for Wednesday's CPI release which also looms large).

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany:

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.2bps at 2.257%, 5-Yr is up 1.8bps at 2.137%, 10-Yr is up 1bps at 2.275%, and 30-Yr is up 0.2bps at 2.561%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.8bps at 4.179%, 5-Yr is up 1.2bps at 4.084%, 10-Yr is up 3.1bps at 4.238%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 4.778%.
• Italian BTP spread down 2.4bps at 127.1bps / Portuguese down 1.8bps at 49.3bps  
  
   

Vice President Kamala Harris is today set to unveil a new set of policy initiatives designed to entice wavering Black voters back into the Democratic Party coalition. 

• Politico notes: “She plans to announce three new policy prescriptions: providing 1 million small business loans that are forgivable up to $20,000, training and mentorship programs that would help give Black men a leg up in jumping into “high-demand” industries and launching an initiative focused on health issues that disproportionately impact Black men.”
• Harris will also tape interviews and podcast appearances with Black media personalities, including Roland Martin and Charlamagne Tha God; and appear at Black-focused events in Charlotte, Detroit, Atlanta and Philadelphia.
• While Harris remains popular amongst Black voters, her level of support appears below the 90% benchmark for Democrats in recent election cycles. According to NYT/Siena College, Harris is hitting 78% support. CBS shows stronger support, around 87%, but warns that “the likelihood of turnout for Black voters lags that of White voters, suggesting perhaps there is more for Harris’ campaign to do in activating these voters."
• Politico notes: "The picture painted by these numbers isn’t an exodus of Black men to Trump, necessarily, but an erosion that could spell disaster in a close election decided in states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan with Black populations of 15 percent or more."

• RES 4: 115-00+ High Oct 1     
• RES 3: 114-14+ High Oct 3
• RES 2: 113-19   50-day EMA   
• RES 1: 112-21/113-12 High Oct 21 / Low Sep 3  
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-27 @ 16:48 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 111-22   Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 111-14   50.0% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)       
• SUP 3: 110-29   2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• SUP 4: 111-00   Low Jul 22 

A bear threat in Treasuries remains present and the contract is trading just ahead of last week’s lows. The latest sell-off resulted in a break of not only the 50-day EMA, but also the 112-00 handle. The move undermines the prior bullish theme and instead highlights potential for a continuation lower. Sights are on 111-14, the 50% retracement for the Apr - Sep bull leg. 113-12, the Sep 3 low, is the first key resistance.