COPPER TECHS: (N5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
Apr-25 13:30
- RES 4: $541.50 - High Mar 26 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $521.30 - High Mar 28
- RES 2: $509.85 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 26 - Apr 7 bear leg
- RES 1: $498.25 - High Apr 23
- PRICE: $485.65 @ 14:19 BST Apr 25
- SUP 1: $461.50 - Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: $436.00/407.40 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $400.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $392.10 - Low Aug 7 ‘24 low (cont) and a key support
The latest rally in Copper futures highlights a stronger reversal and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $474.33. This signals scope for an extension and sights are on $509.85 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at $407.40, the Apr 7 low. Initial support to watch is $461.50, the Apr 17 low.
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UK DMO UPDATE: "Programmatic gilt tenders" to be introduced for off-the-run gilt
Mar-26 13:27
- The DMO's remit notes that:
- "The DMO will be introducing programmatic gilt tenders in 2025-26 to assist with the delivery of the financing remit. It is envisaged that these operations will typically involve the sale of "off-the-run" gilts. The DMO will announce the planned dates of these gilt tender operations as part of its quarterly gilt issuance calendar and will typically include the type and maturity sector (for conventional gilts) of the gilt to be tendered in each case, taking into account market feedback both ahead of each quarter and, with respect to the identity of the gilt to be issued, closer to each tender date. Market participants will be consulted on the identity of the gilt and the maximum size to be offered at each individual gilt tender ahead of the planned gilt tender date. The gilt, nominal size, and scheduled tender date will typically be confirmed at least two business days prior to the planned tender date."
- We assume that this is the main reason behind the larger unallocated bucket.
- But what it means is there is actually LESS certainty that the unallocated bucket will end up in mediums / longs.
- Note that in the current fiscal year, the DMO held three tenders for the 0.125% Jan-26 gilt.This kind of operation may become more common if there is market demand.
- So shorts could actually end up being larger than announced here.
- We will know more on how the DMO plans to run this in the consultation agenda which is due out at 15:30GMT.
US: Large downside SFR Options
Mar-26 13:27
- SFRZ5 95.62/95.37ps, bought for 1.75 in 60k total (pit and screen).
- SFRM5 95.50p, bought for half in20k.
UK DMO UPDATE: CGNCR Forecast for 2025/26 a Little Lower than Expected
Mar-26 13:21
- CGNCR for 2025-26 is GBP142.7bln (median we had seen was GBP146.0bln) - this is where the marginally lower gilt remit than the median exp comes from.
- T-bill issuance: GBP5bln increase in stock (that's broadly in line with exp)
