USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 3: 1.4254 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4211 1.50 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4193 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.4151 @ 16:04 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.4095 Low Jun 18  
• SUP 2: 1.3953 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3851 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3 

A strong impulsive bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and last week's extension reinforces current conditions. The rally signals scope for an extension towards 1.4211, a Fibonacci projection point. Further out, sights are on 1.4292, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the trend is on overbought territory. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support to watch lies at 1.3953, the 20-day EMA. 

• Treasuries are weaker across all maturities after the bell - near midday lows as markets balance risk sentiment amid ongoing Iran/US "technical negotiations".
• TYU6 is currently -12.5 at 109-07.5 vs. 109-06 low, 10Y yield at 4.5068% (+.0535). Initial technical support at 108-25 (June 8 low) followed by 108-08.5 (May 19 low and bear trigger). Curves mixed - holding near last week's 14 month lows after the Fed's hawkish shift (2s10s +.018 at 27.043; 5s30s -.841 at 65.501).
• Projected rate hike pricing look steady to mildly hawkish vs. late Friday lvls (*): Jul'26 at +9.1bp (+9.1bp), Sep'26 at +23.7bp (+23.3bp), Oct'26 at +31.1bp (+30.9bp), Dec'26 +41.8bp (+38.9bp).
• No scheduled data Monday, focus is on ADP weekly NER Pulse tomorrow at 0815ET, followed by S&P flash PMIs at 0945ET.
• Fed Gov Waller spoke earlier on technological innovation rapidly changing how households and businesses interact with dollars and creates healthy competition with traditional banking and payment systems that will see the dollar's international role evolving,
• Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee will sit for a radio interview on WBEZ tonight at 1730ET.
• Spot Yen reached a session low of 161.08 amid rumours of an emergency meeting between Bessent and Japan’s finance Minister Katayama. 160.72 remains initial support, while further out the 20-day EMA is located at 160.13. Yen rebounded to 161.63 late

• RES 4: 0.7278 High May 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 2: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29 
• RES 1: 0.7095 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7013 @ 16:04 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.6979 Low Jun 11 and a short-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6968 Low Apr 8 
• SUP 3: 0.6938 76.4% retracement of the Mar 30 - May 6 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.6899 Low Apr 7 

A short-term bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in play and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows and is trading below the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.7095. The recent breach of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 0.6938, a Fibonacci retracement. First key resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be a bullish development.