GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2698.0 - High Jan 10
- PRICE: $2682.2 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: $2644.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2644.3, the 50-day EMA.
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BTP TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode Extends
- RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.33 @ Close Dec 13
- SUP 1: 121.07 38.2% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 120.37 50.0% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18
BTP futures remain in a bull cycle, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a move lower and last week’s sell-off signals potential for an extension near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and this open 121.07, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.
NORWAY: Highest Monthly Trade Surplus Since March ‘23
The Norwegian trade balance was NOK74.2bln in November, from NOK62.6bln last month and NOK75.6bln a year ago. Excluding the offshore sector, Norway ran a deficit of NOK27.4bln, broadly in line with levels a year ago.
- This was the largest monthly trade surplus of 2024, with gas prices reaching the highest levels since March 2023. Natural gas exports totalled NOK6.28bln, up 4% from November 2023.
- Meanwhile, crude exports were down 11.5% Y/Y at NOK37.9bln, a function of both lower prices and volumes. Statistics Norway cites familiar headwinds facing the oil outlook: “Weaker global economic prospects, especially in China” and “Increased production in countries outside the OPEC+ cooperation, such as Brazil and Argentina”.
- Mainland goods exports were up 0.7% Y/Y at NOK64.1bln, with NOK11.9bln in salmon exports (a record high for a single month).
- Both imports and exports of electricity fell as a result of lower prices.
EURJPY TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.21 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 162.68 61.8% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 161.99 Intraday high
- PRICE: 161.58 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 158.67/157.87 Low Dec / 09
- SUP 2: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
EURJPY continues to trade higher as the cross extends the current corrective cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 161.58. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, initial support to watch is 158.67, the Dec 11 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
