MNI UK Labour Market Data Preview: August 2025 Release

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• With a continually softening labour market a necessity for another quarterly cut in November, Tuesday’s report will be keenly watched by the market. Unlike last month’s release there is no obvious smoking gun to watch out for as the revision to the flash payrolls print for June has returned the focus back to the wider report.
• Our primary focus therefore will return to private regular average earnings which are expected at 4.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to June based on the MNI median and Bloomberg consensus (vs 4.88% prior).