MNI UK Inflation / Labour Market Preview - Feb 2025 Release

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• It’s another key week for UK data with labour market data (Tues), CPI (Wed) and the flash PMI (Fri) all due for release this week.
• Inflation is expected to pick up (both headline and services) - largely driven by a reversal in the timing-induced soft airfares print, but private school VAT and bus fares are likely to contribute too.
• On the labour market side, a rise in official AWE earnings data has been down downplayed in recent BOE communications as being inconsistent with other wage releases.
• We therefore take a deep dive into the alternative HMRC PAYE data.