CZECHIA: MNI Publishes Election Preview

• "The Republic of Lithuania has mandated Erste Group, HSBC and Societe Generale as Joint Lead Managers and Luminor Bank as Co-Manager for a potential EUR-denominated Regulation S dual-tranche transaction, consisting of a long 10-year maturity and a 20-year maturity to be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions." From market source

• Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings are mixed relative to Friday’s levels post-Labor Day, with slightly higher odds of cut later this month but modestly more hawkish further out.
• Strong increases in WTI prices are having relatively little impact on front rates.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 23bp Sep, 35.5bp Oct, 55bp Dec, 66bp Jan and 80.5bp Mar.
• SOFR futures are up to 5 ticks lower in 2027 contracts vs Friday’s close, although with almost half of that coming yesterday in holiday-thinned trade.
• The SOFR implied terminal yield remains in the H7, at 2.995% (+5bp from Fri) having modestly lifted off last week’s recent lows of ~2.95%. It still points to more than 130bp of cuts ahead.
• Directionally, Fed terminal pricing remains at odds with the trend increase in BoE and ECB expectations over the past couple months.
• Today’s macro focus is on the ISM manufacturing survey before labor data comes into focus tomorrow ahead of Friday’s NFP report.
• Next scheduled Fedspeak comes from St Louis Fed’s Musalem (’25 voter, hawk) on the economy and policy tomorrow at 0900ET. 

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