EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Projects 2.3% Y/Y German National CPI, Core 3.0%
Jan-31 09:35
From state-level data that equates around 89% weighting of the national December flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 GMT / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) fell by around 0.1-0.2% M/M (Dec +0.5%) and rose 2.3% Y/Y (Dec 2.6%). See the tables below for full calculations.
- Analyst consensus stands at 2.6% Y/Y and 0.1% M/M, so there should be downside risks to headline inflation.
- Current tracking of Core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies around 3.0% (3.3% in Dec) and -0.3% M/M (+0.5% Nov).
- We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
- Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
| Y/Y | January (Reported) | December (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| Hesse | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.1 |
| Bavaria | 2.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 |
| Brandenburg | 2.3 | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| Baden Wuert. | 2.3 | 2.6 | -0.3 |
| Berlin | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Saxony | 2.4 | 3.2 | -0.8 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 2.7 | 3.0 | -0.3 |
| Lower Saxony | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.1 |
| Saarland | 2.6 | 3.1 | -0.5 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 2.9 | 3.1 | -0.2 |
| Weighted average: | 2.31% | for | 89.1% |
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Tsy Curves Look To Finish 2024 at June'22 Highs
Dec-31 19:18
- Treasuries look to finish the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning support. Markets closed Wednesday for New Years day, resume full trade Thursday.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25.5 (-5.5) late in the day, 10Y yield near session high of 4.5871%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
- Short end support, in turn, helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -29.8bp (-28.8bp).
- No substantive reaction to this morning's housing and regional Dallas Fed services activity data. Looking ahead to Thursday data (prior, est): Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) and Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET; Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
- Treasury supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures, Gold Holding Higher
Dec-31 18:47
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.9 or +1.27% at $71.88
- Natural Gas down $0.32 or -8.13% at $3.618
- Gold spot up $19.24 or +0.74% at $2625.86
- Copper down $6.95 or -1.7% at $402.3
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.34% at $28.8383
- Platinum up $3.96 or +0.44% at $908.02
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Tech & Interactive Media Sectors Underperforming
Dec-31 18:36
- Stocks are trading near session lows after reversing early session gains. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.19 points (-0.22%) at 42474.46, S&P E-Minis down 28 points (-0.47%) at 5929.75, Nasdaq down 147 points (-0.8%) at 19337.13.
- Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed continued to underperform late Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighing on the tech sector: Nvidia -1.61%, Advanced Micro Devices -1.36%, Crowdstrike Holdings -1.28%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Alphabet -0.9%, Live Nation -0.76%, Netflix -0.60%, Meta -0.41%.
- On the positive side, Energy and Materials sectors outperformed in the second half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +1.0 at 71.99): APA Corp +3.59%, Marathon Petroleum +2.46%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
- Meanwhile, shares of chemical & fertilizer makers supported the Materials sector: Mosaic +2.44%, Celanese +1.42%, Dow +1.37%.
- Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
