MNI POLITICAL RISK-Japan House of Councillors Election Preview

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Japan holds elections for half of the seats in the House of Councillors on Sunday, 20 July. In this preview, we include a background to the election, an explainer of how elections to the House of Councillors work, a breakdown of the main parties contesting the vote, an opinion polling chartpack, and post-election scenario analysis with assigned probabilities. 

The House of Councillors is the upper chamber of the National Diet. It is subordinate to the House of Representatives insofar as the lower house can override the House of Councillors on issues such as the election of a prime minister, passing budgets, and ratifying international treaties. Given its subordinate status, there is usually not significant market interest in the House of Councillors’ election. 

However, the Japanese political environment is in a state of turbulence, meaning that the outcome of elections to the upper house could have a significant impact on the policies and even overall stability of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration. In November 2024, Ishiba gambled on a snap election for the House of Representatives, having taken over from Fumio Kishida in September. This gamble failed, with the governing coalition between Ishiba’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its allies in the Komeito party losing their overall majority.