MNI NBP Review - September 2026: On Hold For Longer

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Executive Summary:

• The NBP left interest rates unchanged amid a deteriorating inflation outlook.
• The tone of messaging turned more hawkish; near-term cuts are no longer on the table.
• Governor Glapiński expects interest rates to stay on hold until mid-2027.

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) returned from its summer recess only to extend a pause in interest-rate action, as rising fuel prices pushed headline inflation close to the upper limit of the +/-1pp tolerance band around the +2.5% Y/Y target. Whilst the statement failed to offer much in the way of new information, Governor Adam Glapiński struck considerably more cautious notes, which stood in sharp contrast with his optimistic, dovish July press conference. On the other hand, he signalled that slowing domestic demand may help contain price pressures next year. Although he emphasised that any forward guidance is provisional, at best, the Governor suggested that interest rates will likely remain on hold until mid-2027, with the Council set to monitor incoming data and the evolution of risks amid elevated uncertainty.