MNI: Meloni Plots League Concession As Defence To Strain Gov't

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s decision to consider legal changes to allow regional presidents to run for a third term is a concession to coalition partner the League calculated to smooth the way for a politically difficult boost to defence spending, coalition sources told MNI (MNI: Italy Eyes Transition To New NATO Target-Treasury Sources)

Meloni is preparing the ground ahead of an anticipated increase in NATO’s target for defence spending to 2% of GDP to 5% of at a summit later in June. The hard-right League, a junior partner to the prime minister’s Brothers of Italy party, has expressed strong opposition to rearmament as well as to any political initiative that could deepen defence integration at the European level (MNI: Italy Seeks Support For 5% Defence Target Delay-Officials).

The least disciplined member of Italy’s three-party coalition, the League is also pushing for tax cuts for middle- earners this year – a promise Meloni herself made in January – but the new defence plans may force these to be shelved.

By acceding to the League’s desire to end the two-term limit on regional presidencies, the prime minister calculates that she will build up political capital with that party’s provincial bosses, and make it harder for its national leader Matteo Salvini, whose position is already weak, to withdraw support from the government without risking internal divisions.

NORTHERN STRONGHOLD

While the League’s political support has collapsed from over 30% of the Italian electorate to around 8% in just six years, it retains strong backing in its traditional northern base, where it holds three regional presidencies, including those of Lombardy and Veneto.

“Salvini is uncomfortable in the government, but he is unlikely to leave for now. If there is a third term option it will be harder for him,” a League source told MNI.

Meloni’s government earlier lodged a successful court challenge against a bill passed in the southern region of Campania by local President Vincenzo De Luca to override the two-term rule, arguing that it was unconstitutional. But she is now likely to justify her new stance with the argument that while her government opposed ad hoc regional legislation to bypass term limits, it sees no problem in responding to a broad demand among regional leaders.

“This might hit Meloni’s credibility, as she has been strongly against longer terms as recently as some months ago, but they would have made that calculation,” a former advisor to the prime minister told MNI.

Meloni is determined to complete her own five-year term – a rare event in recent Italian politics, but pushing through higher defence spending will be challenging in a country operating with significant budgetary constraints in which a Russian threat is not widely perceived as a primary concern.