EM LATAM CREDIT: MNI LATAM Credit Market Wrap

• RES 4: 1.4175 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 1.4129 High Jul 28  
• RES 2: 1.4080 High Aug 4 and 5 
• RES 1: 1.3910/1.4001 High Aug 18 / 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3820 @ 16:34 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.3803 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 1.3795 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3672 Low May 12 

A fresh S/T cycle low in USDCAD today has once again confirmed an extension of the current bear leg and this reinforces bearish conditions. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull leg. 1.3817, 61.8% of the May 1 - Jun 24 downleg, has been breached. This opens the 76.4% level at 1.3715. Note that the 200-dma at 1.3848, has also been breached. Key resistance is 1.4001, the 50-day EMA.  

Wednesday's US rates/bond options flow included:

• TYV6 109.50 calls paper paid 0-14 on ~17K, taken bid over for the balance of a 20K order
• SFRU6 96.37 call bought for half in 16k
• SFRU6 95.75 puts bought for 0.25 in 10k
• SFRU6 96.125 puts bought for 2.5 in 10k
• SFRU6 96.18/96.12ps, bought for 1.625 in 10k total
• SFRU6 96.1875/96.0625 put spread bought for 3 in 30k
• SFRU6 96.25/96.18/96.12/96.00 broken put condor sold at 0.75 in 6.5k on block and screen
• SFRX6 95.93/96.00/96.12/96.25c condor, traded 1.75 in 1k
• 0QV6 95.87/95.62ps, bought for 6.25 in 5k
• 3QU6 96.00/96.25cs, traded 3.5 in 2k
• 3QZ6 95.50/95.00ps, traded 4 in 2.25k

The Treasury curve flattened markedly Wednesday on heavy volumes.

• After an indifferent start, long-end Treasuries rallied after the US Treasury surprisingly announced that it is "at least" doubling the size of liquidity support buyback operations for 10-20Y and 20-30Y Treasuries this quarter to $4+B from the current max of $2B. It follows through from Tsy Sec Bessent's comments back  in April 2025 at another time of long-end bond weakness that his department had the tools to address market dislocation ("we could up the buybacks if we wanted").
• While details of the operational changes remain scarce, 30Y yields would drop as much as 10bp following the announcement (5.1817% low) with front TYs hitting the best levels of the week (108-30), in a sweeping bull flattening move across the curve.
• A burst of 200+k contracts on the announcement would help overall TY volumes rise to the highest of the month, 2.22M traded as of 3:40pm ET.
• While 10+Y Treasuries would hold gains, the move in shorter-dated securities had largely reversed within the following hour. And the related lack of concession appeared to soften appetite for the 20Y Bond auction later in the session: it was the weakest 20Y sale since February, coming with a 0.5bp tail that briefly dragged on broader Treasuries.
• But the remainder of the session saw Treasuries largely on the front foot, with oil retesting session lows and the July FOMC minutes showing a hawkish contingent that was no larger than had previously been assumed.
• Data was limited (MBA mortgage applications fell slightly in the latest week, remaining subdued) and there were no Fed speaker appearances.
• Curve flattening was prevalent:  2Y30Y  -9.1bp at 101.8bp (low of 99.4bp), 5Y30Y  -6.8bp at 84.7bp (low of 83.0bp).
• Latest levels: 2-Yr yield is flat at 4.1707%, 5-Yr is down 2.1bps at 4.3444%, 10-Yr is down 6bps at 4.6446%, and 30-Yr is down 8.8bps at 5.1942%.
  Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 8/32  at 108-26 (L: 108-16 / H: 108-30).
• Thursday brings Philly Fed Manufacturing and jobless claims data, as well as appearances by Fed's Daly and Musalem (both non-voters).