MNI Global Week Ahead - March Flash PMIs and UK Releases

WEDNESDAY - UK February Inflation

Shortly ahead of the Spring Statement on Wednesday, the ONS will release February inflation data. This is a bit later in the month than usual (possibly due to the 2025B weights update). Headline, core and services CPI are all expected to tick down a tenth according to early survey data (2.9%, 3.6%, 4.9% respectively). However, we note that last month services inflation surprised a little to the downside but headline inflation surprised a little to the upside. This was largely because core goods prices and food prices both moved higher. This was something the MPC Minutes picked up on this week, and something we have been following for a while. Pre-pandemic the thinking was that if you had goods inflation running at 1%, you could have services inflation at 3% and still meet the 2% headline target. But if upside pressures to goods prices keep increasing, you need to run services inflation lower than pre-pandemic to compensate to meet the 2% headline target. That will potentially require more restrictive policy than pre-pandemic, too. So whereas in 2024 much of the focus was purely on services inflation, and while the BOE will still look through energy inflation, non-energy goods inflation is much more important for 2025, almost on a par with services inflation in terms of importance. We also note that the PPI release has been postponed indefinitely due to issues with the data. Flash PMI data will also be released on Monday while February retail sales data, January trade data and revised Q4 GDP data will all be published Friday.

WEDNESDAY - UK Spring Statement and OBR Forecast Update

Next Wednesday will see Chancellor Reeves deliver her Spring Statement, that will include the OBR's (independent fiscal forecaster) forecasts. The statement is due to begin at 12:30GMT followed by the release of the DMO's financing needs (including the gilt remit) around 13:30GMT. Note that Reeves has committed to no tax increases, but spending cuts are expected to balance the books with disappointing growth and higher borrowing costs likely having eroded Reeves' fiscal headroom. Having said that, we would not rule out further income tax threshold rises into later in the parliament (which could be argued by Reeves to not be a tax increase). We will put out our full Spring Statement preview next week, along with full analysis of sellside remit expectations. Based on our preliminary findings expectations for the gilt remit for 2025/26 range from GBP292bln to GBP315bln (median GBP302bln). There is a greater skew towards shorts than in previous years (median 36.2% vs 34.3% this year), albeit with estimates ranging from 33.9% to 38.5% for this bucket. The proportion of longs sees the smallest reduction versus the current fiscal year.

THURSDAY - Norges Bank Decision

Norges Bank is expected to keep the policy rate on hold at 4.50% on Thursday, a prospect that seemed highly unlikely just a few weeks ago. A reminder that the December MPR rate path indicated a near-certain implied probability of a 25bp cut, a move that was also signalled in the December and January policy statements. However, a much stronger-than-expected February CPI report has driven a significant hawkish repricing NOK rates this month, and will contribute to an upward revision of the March MPR rate path regardless of the rate decision. Although the data suggests a cautious approach to rate cuts may be warranted in March, we think the probability of a rate cut is higher than implied by markets (~7bps of cuts are currently priced in). A 25bp cut would allow Norges Bank to follow through with its prior guidance, but still maintain a policy stance that is restrictive to help squeeze out remaining domestic inflationary pressures. It's worth recalling the December 2023 decision, where Norges Bank delivered a 25bp hike (as signalled in the November 2023 decision) even as markets were priced heavily in favour of a hold.

THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US Q4 GDP Third Estimate / February PCE Inflation

The US economic calendar is backloaded in the upcoming week, with Thursday’s Q4 national account revisions and advanced trade data for February before Friday’s PCE report for February. The third release for national accounts typically receives a little less attention although being for Q4, this will be the first estimate we see for Gross Domestic Income, a useful alternative look at economic activity in the quarter. The advance merchandise trade data will also no doubt be watched far more closely than usual after the January release saw a ballooning deficit on a surge in imports. The limited details with this advance release will limit conclusions, but we’ll watch imports of industrial supplies most closely. The full release on Apr 3 should then give a better idea of how concentrated any surprises were in “finished metal shapes”, which appeared heavily driven by gold arbitrage flows that won’t show in GDP data. Friday’s PCE report is then expected to show a recovery in personal spending in February (0.5% after -0.2%) although it should look much less impressive in real terms (seen at 0.3% after -0.5%). The retail sales control group firmly beat expectations (1.0% M/M vs cons 0.4, partly offset by a 0.2pp downward revision to -1.0% in Jan) but both overall sales and discretionary spending were soft. Core PCE inflation meanwhile is seen rounding to 0.3% M/M although unrounded estimates point to a ‘high’ 0.3. This would mark a further acceleration from the 0.285% M/M seen in January, whilst a simplistic example of a 0.33% M/M increase with no revisions would see the six-month rate rise four tenths to a more troubling 3.0% annualized for its highest since June.

EMERGING MARKETS

TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)

The National Bank of Hungary is widely expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.50% in what will be the first meeting under the helm of Governor Mihaly Varga. In his first comments as the new central bank chief, Varga backed a “disciplined and patient monetary policy” that’s focused foremost on ensuring price stability. Among sell-side, some analysts expect the base rate to be kept unchanged through the entirety of 2025.

WEDNESDAY - CNB Decision (Czech Republic)

The CNB is expected to pause monetary easing after a 25bp cut in February, sticking with its stop-and-go strategy on the approach to neutral levels of the two-week repo rate. Just before the start of the media blackout, a couple of Bank Board members signalled that they would likely vote for a hold amid lingering inflationary risks.

THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)

Banxico is widely expected to deliver another 50bp policy rate cut to 9.00% on Thursday, amid weak economic activity and moderating inflation pressures. This would be the second consecutive 50bp move and recent peso resilience should bolster the central bank's confidence in its decision. The Bank is likely to keep the door open to further easing ahead, while remaining cautious given the uncertain external backdrop. The vote split will remain in focus given Deputy Governor Heath's vote for a smaller 25bp reduction last month.