MNI Global Week Ahead - DM Central Banks In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets in the week ahead:
Developed Markets
WEDNESDAY - BOJ Decision
This week BoJ Governor Ueda largely delivered a repeat of previous hawkish statements. While no change is expected at next week’s BoJ meeting, the timing of recent messaging suggests the decision will come with a hawkish outlook. This may see the markets ramp up expectations for the decision due on May 1, from its current stance of July. It is also noteworthy that the BoJ raised interest rates last year shortly after Rengo published its initial count of wage rises.
WEDNESDAY - Fed Decision
The FOMC will continue to exercise patience in policy setting at its March meeting (decision/projections Weds 1400ET/1800GMT), leaving the Fed funds target range on hold at 4.25-4.50% and making no changes to its formal rate guidance. The updated quarterly economic projections will show higher inflation and weaker growth in 2025 compared with December's forecasts, in large part due to the impact of ongoing and expected future government policy shifts. The lack of conviction to resume the easing cycle comes in the context of significant government policy shifts posing arguably two-way risks to both the inflation and employment mandates, as well as mixed economic activity indicators and still-elevated inflation readings. This outlook is unlikely to result in any changes to the "Dot Plot" Fed funds rate forecast medians, which are likely to continue to show expectations for 2 rate cuts in 2025, and a further 2 in 2026. However, Chair Powell's press conference is likely to emphasize the uncertainty faced by the Committee as it navigates the months ahead, while also reiterating that the "current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate", as he put it on March 7. There are also some expectations that the Fed could pause or even end balance sheet runoff at this meeting after hinting at the possibility in the January meeting minutes, though any shift would be framed as a technical rather than a monetary policy decision.
THURSDAY - Riksbank Decision
The Riksbank are widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% on Thursday, with increased domestic inflationary pressures driving a hawkish adjustment in analyst and market expectations since the January decision. Both January and February inflation surprised markets and the Riksbank notably to the upside, while forward-looking indicators such as PPI and expected price survey metrics also point to accelerations ahead. Meanwhile, Q4 GDP was 0.8% Q/Q, comfortably above the Riksbank’s 0.4% projection in the December MPR. Taken alongside a potential growth/inflation impulse from higher European defence spending, analysts expecting further Riksbank cuts this cycle now appear to be in the minority. However, hawkish signals should be tempered somewhat by subdued Q1 growth indicators and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate. Tariff-related growth risks also remain a worry. Overall, the March MPR rate path is not expected to deviate much from the December iteration, potentially signalling a 2.25% policy rate throughout the forecast horizon.
THURSDAY - SNB Decision
Markets price around a 75% chance of the SNB cutting by 25bps on Thursday, a move which would bring its policy rate down to 0.25%. Expectations for the meeting have moved more hawkish recently following wider Eurozone trends as well as a stronger-than-expected February Swiss core CPI figure (which, however, was driven by processed foods and non-alcoholic beverages - categories the SNB recently paid less attention to when commenting on underlying inflationary pressure). Swiss Franc valuations remain well off mid-2024 highs when looked at in trade-weighted, real terms, and since the last SNB meeting in December, the Franc is slightly stronger vs the Dollar but has depreciated around 3% vs the Euro. This implies that there should be little imminent pressure for the SNB to change its FX communications, currently stating its willingness to be "active in the foreign exchange market as necessary" in its policy statement.
THURSDAY - UK Labour Market Data and BOE Decision
It’s another busy week for the UK with both the BOE decision and labour market data due on Thursday. An unchanged Bank Rate is almost universally expected here: markets are pricing a close to zero probability of a move and we are yet to see a sellside preview expecting anything other than an on hold decision. The main focus is likely to be on the vote split and any change to the guidance. On the vote split we see at least five of the nine members almost certainly voting for Bank Rate on hold. Of the possible dissenters, Ramsden has previously been dissenting in favour of sequential cuts - we are unsure whether he will continue to do so after raising concerns about the Agents’ Pay Survey. Taylor sounded a bit less dovish than previously at the TSC testimony (but we still on balance expect him to vote for a 25bp cut next week). Mann previously voted for a 50bp cut, so we would expect her to either repeat that or vote for a 25bp cut. Dhingra also voted for a 50bp cut – we expect another vote for a cut but don’t have a strong conviction surrounding the magnitude.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Bank Indonesia (BI) meets on March 19 and is likely to keep rates at 5.75% after its 25bp cut in January. While USDIDR is off its late February high of 16593, it remains elevated at around 16400 and BI has intervened in the FX market this month. Also, the JP Morgan NEER is down 1.6% since the February meeting and with FX stability its key focus, BI is unlikely to want to encourage further rupiah selling with a rate cut. Core inflation has also been creeping higher and is now at the mid-point of BI's target band. It has alternatives to support growth and has used macroprudential policies for some time to do this.
WEDNESDAY - Copom Decision (Brazil)
The Copom is widely expected to deliver another 100bp Selic rate hike on Wednesday to 14.25%, in line with the forward guidance. This would be the third successive 100bp move and take total tightening since September to 375bp. Of more interest will be what guidance the central bank provides for subsequent meetings. While inflation pressures remain high, the tight monetary stance is increasingly weighing on domestic activity, raising expectations that the Copom will adopt a more data dependent approach and potentially end the tightening cycle sooner than expected.
THURSDAY - SARB Decision (South Africa)
The SARB's rate decision is a close call, with the ongoing political conflict over the national budget complicating the outlook, but inflation contained within the target range gives policymakers a degree of comfort, should they decide to deliver another 25bp rate cut.
FRIDAY - BCCh Decision (Chile)
The BCCh looks set to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.00% for a second successive meeting on Friday, amid elevated inflation and an uncertain external backdrop. The Bank is likely to maintain a cautious tone, while it assesses incoming data, with recent surveys pointing to the likelihood of an extended pause ahead. Concerns about potential hikes have moderated, however, as inflation and inflation expectations have dipped from recent highs, and the central bank is still seen as having some room to cut further later this year.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 17/03/2025 | - |  GB | Bank of England Meeting | |
| 17/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | Rightmove House Prices Index |
| 17/03/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 17/03/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
| 17/03/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
| 17/03/2025 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 17/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 17/03/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** |  CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 17/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Retail Sales |
| 17/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 17/03/2025 | 1300/0900 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 17/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 17/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/03/2025 | 1400/1500 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde awarding of diplomas at University Aix-Marselle | |
| 17/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 17/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 18/03/2025 | - |  JP | Bank of Japan Meeting | |
| 17/03/2025 | - | US | FOMC Meetings with S.E.P. | |
| 18/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | GB | Consumer Price inflation weight update | |
| 18/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 18/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 18/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 18/03/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 18/03/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 18/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 18/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 19/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Trade |
| 19/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 19/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19/03/2025 | 0300/1200 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 19/03/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 19/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (f) |
| 19/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 19/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB de Guindos In Madrid | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB Elderson At European Financials Conference | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 19/03/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Statement |
| 19/03/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 20/03/2025 | 2145/1045 | *** |  NZ | GDP |
| 20/03/2025 | - |  CH | Swiss National Bank Meeting | |
| 20/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 20/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 20/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | PPI |
| 20/03/2025 | 0800/0900 | EU | ECB's Lagarde At ECON Hearing | |
| 20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | CH | SNB PolicyRate |
| 20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** |  SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | CH | SNB Interest Rate Decision |
| 20/03/2025 | 0900/1000 |  NO | Q1 Regional Network Survey | |
| 20/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 20/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Construction Production |
| 20/03/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 20/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB's Lane At UCC Economics Society's Conference | |
| 20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | GB | Agents summary of business conditions | |
| 20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | US | Current Account Balance |
| 20/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 20/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 20/03/2025 | 1650/1250 | CA | BOC Governor speaks in Calgary | |
| 20/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 21/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
| 21/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 21/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/03/2025 | 1305/0905 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 21/03/2025 | 1500/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 21/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 21/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 21/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
