MNI: FRANCE MAY CONSUMER SENTIMENT 90
May-29 06:45
- MNI: FRANCE MAY CONSUMER SENTIMENT 90
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SWEDEN: GDP indicator only marginally disappoints Riksbank forecasts
Apr-29 06:39
- Today's soft retail sales numbers likely fed into a disappointing GDP indicator, which was -0.1%Q/Q for Q1 (consensus +0.2%Q/Q, prior +0.1%Q/Q). Only 1/7 of the analysts in the Bloomberg survey had not expected a positive print. On a monthly basis February was revised down from +0.1%M/M to -0.3%M/M with March also coming in at -0.3%M/M.
- However, compared to the Riksbank's forecast of -0.02%Q/Q for GDP in their March MPR, today's -0.1%Q/Q print isn't a huge surprise, so it appears to be a bigger surprise to the market than it is to the Riksbank.
- Swedish retail sales have disappointed in March, falling -0.4%M/M. On a 3m/3m seasonally and WDA basis, the +0.3% reading to the end of March was lower than +0.8%3m/3m to the end of February and the lowest since the 3 months to the end of November 2023. Also, note that previously there had appeared to be 5 consecutive monthly increases in the 3m/3m measure, but this is no longer the case due to previous downward revisions.
USD: Main overnight story is the Yen
Apr-29 06:34
- The main Global story in FX is of course on the Yen, after USDJPY got squeezed all the way up to 158.44 late Friday, USD spiked all the way to 160.17 (prices are according to Bloomberg) overnight on very thin liquidity, with Japan out on Holiday.
- Top Currency official Kanda provided a "no comment" when asked if they had intervened.
- USDJPY is already trading in a whopping 511 pips range, and now back towards 157.00, closer to where it was trading during the European afternoon session on Friday.
- Other best early performers in G10 are the Kiwi and the Aussie.
- Resistance in NZDUSD will be seen at 0.5993.
- For AUDUSD, this comes at 0.6617 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg.
STIR: Flat Start For EUR STIRs, Just Under 70bp Of '24 ECB Cuts Priced
Apr-29 06:30
U.S. discussions with Israel may have (at least marginally) reduced the risk of further escalation in the Middle East, although that has been more impactful for crude oil and equity markets than core global FI.
- Euribor futures are essentially unchanged, while there has been little net movement in ECB-dated OIS, leaving 21.5bp of cuts showing through June and ~68bp of easing priced through year end.
- That pricing remains anchored towards the more hawkish end of the recent range, largely on the back of spill over from the hawkish Fed repricing seen in recent weeks.
- The ECB Governing Council continue to guide heavily towards a June cut, although there is a wide variety of opinions on policy expectations beyond that meeting. Some rate setters remain completely non-committal, underscoring data-dependence beyond June.
- Goldman Sachs have recommended receiving Sep ’24 ECB-dated OIS. They note that “the key tension in European fixed income remains that between the ECB's guidance towards easing and the impact on global duration from U.S. data strength. We recommend receiving the September ECB meeting, given the near-term meetings are likely better insulated against a further reassessment of the Fed path.”
- Monday’s regional data calendar is headlined by German (regional and national) and Spanish CPI data, ahead of tomorrow’s Eurozone reading.
- We are also set to hear from ECB’s de Cos, Lane & de Guindos.
| ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-24 | 3.691 | -21.6 |
| Jul-24 | 3.600 | -30.7 |
| Sep-24 | 3.439 | -46.8 |
| Oct-24 | 3.359 | -54.8 |
| Dec-24 | 3.229 | -67.8 |
