MNI: FED'S HARKER: LOOKING FOR 'COUPLE' MORE MONTHS OF DATA
- MNI: FED'S HARKER: LOOKING FOR 'COUPLE' MORE MONTHS OF DATA
- HARKER: MAY RATE CUT IS POSSIBLE, BUT IS NOT BASELINE OUTLOOK
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 1.3480 @ 16:05 GMT Jan 23
- SUP 1: 1.3415/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
- SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
- SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3158 2.0% 10-dma envelope
USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3459, confirming an extension of the bull cycle that started Dec 27. This has exposed 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. The retracement has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.3608, Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, Jan 12 low. Initial support is 1.3415, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6635 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6569 @ 16:03 GMT Jan 23
- SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
- SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following last week’s bearish price action. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6635, the 50-day EMA.
US STOCKS: ESA Sees Late Lift Back Towards Initial Resistance
- ESH4 has seen a strong lift in recent trade, touching a high of 4896.00 (4892.5 latest) to leave it close to yesterday’s 4898.25, helped by Fed cuts building after Bullard’s comments on the rate cut prospects.
- Yesterday’s high marks initial resistance with the bullish price sequence still intact and with next resistance at the round 4900.00.
- The NYSE TICK index has recorded two buy programs in excess of 1400 names, some of the largest in the month to date.
- In e-mini space, the S&P 500 (+0.25%), lags the Nasdaq 100 (+0.35%), but outperforms the Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and Dow (-0.25%).
- The SPX is led by consumer staples (+1.2%) and communication services (+0.8%), whilst real estate (-0.35%) and consumer discretionary (-0.15%) lag.
- Consumer staples are driven by Proctor & Gamble (+4.4%) following above-estimate earnings and its more optimistic profit outlook. Communication services meanwhile receive firm boosts from Netflix (+0.8%), Meta (+0.5%) and Google (+0.4%). Real estate names meanwhile come under pressure with a sizeable lift in real yields (10Y real +4bps on the day).
