MNI Fed Preview-June 2025: Analyst Outlook

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Jun 2025 FOMC Analyst Views: Same Dots Seen, But A Close Call

None of the 32 analyst June FOMC previews seen by MNI expect a rate cut in June – or, for that matter, July.

• Macro Forecasts/Dot Plot: The FOMC's 2025 rate dot median is seen unchanged by the median analyst, at 3.9% (2 cuts from current levels by year-end).
• However that's an extremely close call: 11 of 24 analysts who expressed an opinion expect it to shift up 25bp vs March's, to 4.1%, with the other 13 see it remaining at 3.9%.
• Of the 17 analysts who had a view on the 2026 median, 7 saw an upward shift by 25 to 3.6% (the remaining 10 saw no change at 3.4%).
• The longer-run dot is more unanimously seen remaining at 3.0%, with 12 of 15 analysts seeing no change (3 see a rise to 3.1%).
• Analysts who expressed an opinion on the macroeconomic forecast portion of the SEP are largely unanimous that 2025 GDP will be revised lower while unemployment and inflation are revised higher; dynamics for 2026 were due to see revisions largely in the same direction though somewhat mixed.
• Future action: The median analyst is forecasting the Fed to deliver just 1 cut this year for 25bp of easing, but there is a wide range of opinions which includes 100bp of cuts (UBS) to zero (multiple). Opinion is accordingly split among most analysts about whether the next cut is in September, October, or December.
• The median analyst expectation is for 75bp of cuts in 2026, though again this ranges from no cuts to 175bp of easing (Morgan Stanley).
• The median analyst who has forecasts through both years sees 112.5bp of cuts, or between 4-5. UBS and Morgan Stanley see the most total easing (175bp), while BofA sees no further cuts.

Note to readers: This update of our Jun 13 preview includes analyst expectations, starting page 26