EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Japan Real Wages Back In Positive Y/Y Territory
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
POLITICS (POLITICO): “UK waits nervously for Trump to back Chagos Islands deal. U.S. president’s shake-up of the security apparatus has complicated scrutiny of controversial British deal over Diego Garcia military base.”
EU
EU/US (FT/BBG): "The European Commission is looking at using its “anti-coercion instrument” in any potential trade dispute with Washington, which would allow the EU to target US service industries such as Big Tech, the FT reports citing two officials with knowledge of the plans."
FRANCE (ECONOMIST): “On Wednesday the centrist François Bayrou faces a no-confidence vote, tabled by the hard left after the prime minister announced that he too would try to force his budget through parliament without a vote. But Mr Bayrou should survive. Crucially, the Socialist Party decided on Monday not to vote against him. The next day Jordan Bardella, president of the hard-right National Rally, hinted that his party might follow suit.”
AUSTRIA (POLITICO): “Talks to form a government that would put the far right in power in Austria are struggling, Austrian media reported Tuesday, though the parties involved say negotiations have not collapsed.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Trump must get “strong security guarantees” from Russia to end the war that’s been raging for nearly three years in Ukraine.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested Tuesday that Ukraine should be given nuclear weapons once the hot phase of the war with Russia is over. This could deter Russia from invading Ukraine again, if Ukraine's aim of attaining NATO membership when the war ends isn't achievable quickly.”
GREENLAND (DW): “Greenland's prime minister has proposed an election for March 11. The announcement came with Greenland's parliament mulling a ban on foreign political donations, with Donald Trump repeating his interest in the territory.”
TECH (POLITICO): “The EU’s tech fines are a “tariff” on U.S. companies and the bloc is going in the “wrong direction” with its tech regulation, Meta’s top lobbyist Joel Kaplan said Tuesday.”
US
MIDDLE EAST (RTRS): “President Donald Trump said the U.S. would take over the war-ravaged Gaza Strip and develop it economically after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere, moves that would shatter decades of U.S. policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”
US/CHINA (WAPO): The U.S. Postal Service abruptly suspended inbound package shipments from China and Hong Kong on Tuesday as President Donald Trump's trade war began in earnest.
FED (MNI): Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Tuesday the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to deal with both sides of the central bank's mandate, though he continues to expect a gradual reduction in interest rates toward a more neutral stance over the medium term.
BUSINESS (BBC): “Beauty firm Estée Lauder, owner of cosmetics brands Clinique, MAC, and Jo Malone, is shedding twice the number of jobs than planned, pointing to uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's tariffs as cause for concern. The American multinational was already restructuring the business to tackle its flagging performance, but now says job losses could reach 7,000.”
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of household purchasing power, posted their second straight monthly rise in December, up 0.6% against November's 0.5%, preliminary data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on Wednesday showed.
NEW ZEALAND (MNI BRIEF): The New Zealand unemployment rate rose 30 basis points to 5.1% over Q4, in line with market expectations and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s most recent forecast, Stats NZ data showed Wednesday.
CHINA
US/CHINA (BBG): “President Trump says he’ll speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping at the appropriate time.”
PMI SERVICES (MNI BRIEF): China’s Caixin Services PMI reached 51.0 in January, down 1.2 points from December but remained above the expansionary level of 50 for the 25th consecutive month, Caixin reported on Wednesday.
FENTANYL (GLOBAL.COM): “The U.S. should control fentanyl by addressing domestic loopholes and cooperating with many countries, including China, given the global nature of the issue, according to Ying Pinguang, professor at the School of International Organisations at Shanghai University.”
TRAVEL (SECURITIES DAILY): “China’s cross-regional people flow increased 7.2% y/y during the Spring Festival, setting a historical record, data from the Ministry of Transport showed.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY716.5 Bln via OMO Wednesday
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY697 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY716.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY1.4315 trillion 14-day reverse repos today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1693 Weds; -1.18% Y/Y
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1693 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1698 set before Chinese New Year holiday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2813 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q4 JOBLESS RATE 5.1%; EST. 5.1%; PRIOR 4.8%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 EMPLOYMENT -0.1% Q/Q; EST. -0.2%; PRIOR -0.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 EMPLOYMENT -1.1% Y/Y; EST. -0.9%; PRIOR -0.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 NON-GOVT. ORDINARY TIME WAGES +0.6% Q/Q; EST. +0.6%; PRIOR +0.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +1.3% Q/Q; PRIOR +1.2%
NEW ZEALAND JAN. ANZ COMMODITY PRICES +1.8% M/M; PRIOR +0.1%
AUSTRALIA JAN. F S&P GLOBAL PMI COMPOSITE 51.1; PRE 50.3; DEC. 50.2
AUSTRALIA JAN. F S&P GLOBAL PMI SERVICES 51.2; PRE 50.4; DEC. 50.8
CHINA JAN. CAIXIN SERVICES PMI 51.0; EST. 52.4; DEC. 52.2
CHINA JAN. CAIXIN COMPOSITE PMI 51.1; DEC. 51.4
SOUTH KOREA JAN. CONSUMER PRICES +2.2% Y/Y; EST. +2.1%; PRIOR +1.9%
SOUTH KOREA JAN. CONSUMER PRICES +0.7% M/M; EST. +0.5%; PRIOR +0.4%
SOUTH KOREA JAN. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY +1.9% Y/Y; EST. +1.8%; PRIOR +1.8%
SOUTH KOREA FOREIGN RESERVES JAN. $411.01B; PRIOR $415.60B
JAPAN LABOUR CASH EARNINGS DEC. +4.8% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%; PRIOR +3.9%
JAPAN REAL CASH EARNINGS DEC. +0.6% Y/Y; EST. -0.1%; PRIOR +0.5%
JAPAN CASH EARNINGS SAME SAMPLE DEC. +5.2% Y/Y; EST. +3.6%; PRIOR +3.7%
JAPAN SCHEDULED FULL TIME PAY DEC. +2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.8%; PRIOR +2.7%
JAPAN JIBUN BANK JAN. SERVICES PMI 53.0; PRE. 52.7; DEC. 50.9
JAPAN JIBUN BANK JAN. COMPOSITE PMI 51.1; PRE. 51.1; DEC. 50.5
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Pare Morning Losses, 10yr Yield at 4.50%
JGBS: Cheaper, BoJ Masaki Talks On Policy, BoJ Tamura Tomorrow
JGB futures are hovering near session lows, -14 compared to the settlement levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer & At Bests Ahead Of US ADP Data & ISM Services
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and at Sydney session bests on a data light day.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Slightly Richer & At Bests But OIS Firmer
NZGBs closed at session bests, 1bp richer across benchmarks, after reversing weakness seen in the aftermath of this morning’s Q4 Labour Market data.
FOREX: Yen To Multi Month Highs, Supported By Wages Data, Steady Elsewhere
Outside of yen gains, G10 FX trends have been very muted in Wednesday trade to date. The BBDXY index sits little changed and above 1300 in latest dealings, despite a 0.65% rise in the yen (returning China onshore markets with higher USD/CNY levels has likely provided some offset).
ASIA STOCKS: China & Hong Kong Equities Lower On Trade Tensions
Chinese stocks opened higher but quickly turned lower as trade tensions weighed on sentiment. The CSI 300 Index fell 0.3%, led by declines in energy and utilities. Hong Kong stocks and Chinese e-commerce firms like JD.com dropped after the US Postal Service suspended inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong.
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Mixed As Trade Tensions Weigh On Sentiment
Asian equities are mixed today as trade tensions weighed on sentiment, with US-China tariffs and US Postal Service suspending inbound parcels from China adding to uncertainty. Investors remain cautious amid signs of slowing Chinese services activity and a weakening yuan, though Goldman Sachs sees potential for a 14% rally in the MSCI China Index if Beijing delivers strong stimulus.
OIL: Crude Lower On Growth Concerns, But Less Iranian Supply In Background
Oil prices are moderately lower today due to a large rise in US crude inventories and rising global growth concerns from an increase in protectionism. Brent is down 0.4% to $75.87/bbl after a low of $75.77. It reached a high of $76.34 early in the session. WTI is 0.3% lower at $72.45/bbl after falling to $72.36 and an earlier high of $72.97. The USD index is down 0.1%.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | ![]() | Industrial Production |
05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | ![]() | Retail Sales |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | PPI |
05/02/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
05/02/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | ![]() | ADP Employment Report |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
05/02/2025 | 1400/1500 | ![]() | ECB's Lane at Euro area in 2025 event and Q&A | |
05/02/2025 | 1400/0900 | ![]() | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | ![]() | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | ![]() | housing vacancies |
05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | ![]() | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
05/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | ![]() | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
05/02/2025 | 2000/1500 | ![]() | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
06/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
05/02/2025 | 0030/1930 | ![]() | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | ** | ![]() | Unemployment |
06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | Manufacturing Orders |
06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ![]() | Flash CPI | |
06/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
06/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | ![]() | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | ![]() | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
06/02/2025 | 1230/1230 | ![]() | BOE MPR press conference | |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |