EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Japan Export Growth Remains Negative, Growth To US Slows Further

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
INVESTMENT (BBG): “Microsoft Corp., OpenAI and other American companies announced plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on technology infrastructure in the UK, part of a series of business deals that coincide with President Donald Trump’s visit to the nation this week.”
TARIFFS (BBG): “The UK has quietly shelved its talks with the US aimed at eliminating tariffs on British steel, in a blow to the industry which has been waiting months for the removal of the 25% levy.”
US (BBC): “President Donald Trump has arrived in the UK for his historic second state visit, which will see a crowded mix of royal pageantry, trade talks and international politics. Before making the trip from the US on Air Force One, Trump sent positive signals, describing the visit as an honour and saying: "My relationship is very good with the UK."”
CAPEX (POLITICO): “U.S. tech companies unveiled £31 billion of investments in Britain Tuesday, timed for the arrival of President Donald Trump on his second state visit to the country.”
EU
CARBON PRICES (MNI): The European Parliament is likely to take steps to reduce the impact on consumers and companies of ETS2 carbon pollution charges set to be imposed on residential heating, road transport and small businesses from 2027, following heavy lobbying by member states including Germany worried by a potential surge in fuel prices, European officials and parliamentarians told MNI.
ECB (BBG): “The European Central Bank must stand ready to act on interest rates, with uncertainty persisting despite inflation being under control, Governing Council member Jose luis Escriva said.”
EU/CHINA (RTRS): “European firms are expecting more shutdowns and suffering losses as Beijing continues to hold a tight grip on rare earth exports despite a July agreement to fast-track shipments to the bloc, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said on Tuesday.”
EU (POLITICO): “The EU plans to propose sanctions on more Chinese companies linked to the Kremlin’s war effort this week, as part of a diplomatic charm offensive to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to finally press Russia to end the war in Ukraine.”
EU (POLITICO): “A European lawmaker who led a failed no-confidence vote against Ursula von der Leyen is suing her for defamation because he says she implied he was taking orders from Russia.”
ENERGY (DW): “Gas Infrastructure Europe, the gas operators' association, reports that European Union gas reserves are at just over 80% [September 15, 2025] — lower than the 90% cushions of the last few years but stronger than 2021.”
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): White House economic adviser Stephen Miran was sworn in Tuesday as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, just before the start of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that is expected to end in an interest rate cut.
US/CHINA (BBG): “TikTok’s US operations would be acquired by an investor consortium that includes Oracle Corp., Andreessen Horowitz and private equity firm Silver Lake Management LLC under a framework deal that President Donald Trump is set to discuss with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.”
US/CHINA (SCMP): "'Significant progress' made on plans since Beijing's invitation to US leader for formal state visit China and the United States are in the "final stage" of negotiations for a state visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump, with bulk purchases of American goods a critical part of the deliverables, the South China Morning Post has learned."
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s exports fell for a fourth straight year-on-year decline in August, down 0.1% after July’s 2.6% drop, as shipments of automobiles and iron, and steel products were hit by U.S. tariffs, Ministry of Finance data showed Wednesday.
JAPAN (BBG): “Japanese carmakers said they will strive to keep up the positive cycle of wage growth as a recent trade deal with the US enables the industry to avoid “catastrophic” impact from the Trump administration’s tariff campaign.”
NEW ZEALAND (BBG): NZ’s Willis Says Economic Growth Is Picking Up After 2q stutter
MIDDLE EAST (BBG): “ Israel started a long-threatened push into the heart of Gaza City after US President Donald Trump’s top diplomat warned Hamas there’s a “very short window” for negotiations to end the war.”
CHINA
STOCKS (CSJ): “Turnover in Chinese stocks has remained elevated, signaling a potentially sustainable bull run supported by ample liquidity, China Securities Journal reported.”
STOCKS (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): “Overseas institutional investors have been conducting intensive research on A-share listed companies since the second half of this year, Shanghai Securities News reported.”
FISCAL (NPC): “China will enhance the management of ultra-long-term special government bonds, improve coordination with government investment funds and strengthen repayment mechanisms, according to a report from the National People’s Congress.”
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY114.5 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY418.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY114.5 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY304 billion today, according to Wind Information
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1013 Weds; -1.33% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1013 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1027 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1027 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q3 WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 90.9; Q2 91.2
NEW ZEALAND Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT NZ$0.97B; EST. -NZ$2.70B; Q1 -NZ$0.71B
NEW ZEALAND YTD Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 3.7% OF GDP; EST. -4.8%; Q1 -4.2%
AUSTRALIA AUG. WESTPAC LEADING INDEX -0.04% M/M; JUL. +0.13%
JAPAN AUG. EXPORTS -0.1% Y/Y; EST. -2.0%; JUL. -2.6%
JAPAN AUG. IMPORTS -5.2% Y/Y; EST. -4.1%; JUL. -7.4%
JAPAN AUG. TRADE DEFICIT Y242.5B YEN; EST. -Y512.6B; JUL. –Y118.4B
JAPAN AUG. ADJUSTED TRADE DEFICIT Y150.13B; EST. -Y341.3B; JUL. –Y292.8B
MARKETS
US TSYS: Quiet Session, Looking Toward FOMC
The TYZ5 range has been 113-15 to 113-18+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 113-17+, down 0-00+ from the previous close.
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Market Strengthens After 20Y Auction, Japan's Exports Hit By Tariffs
JGB futures are stronger, +9 compared to the settlement levels, after today’s 20-year auction.
AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session Ahead Of The FOMC Decision
ACGBs (YM +0.5 & XM flat) are little changed on a data-light session
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Modest Bull-Steepener
NZGBs closed showing a moderate curve steepener, with benchmark yields 1-3bps lower.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The Market Is Going Into The FOMC Short USD's
The BBDXY has had a range of 1187.79 - 1189.50 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1189, +0.02%. The USD’s move lower gained pace overnight breaking below its recent support around 1195/97, first target is the year's lows back towards 1180. A sustained break below 1180 would be extremely bearish, should the USD start another leg lower it would have big implications for FX and potentially see a lot of the recent ranges in G10 broken. The market is clearly going into the FOMC short the USD so there is some obvious danger of disappointment, but if the market gets the dovish cut it's looking for the USD could be poised for its next big leg lower.
Fig 1: BBDXY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Pressing 146.00 Support Into FOMC
The USD/JPY range has been 146.21 - 146.61 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 146.50, +0.03%. USD/JPY came under pressure overnight as the USD trades very heavy heading into the FOMC. The price is now just above the support of its recent 146-149 range, and we need a convincing break to see a clearer direction again. CFTC data shows leveraged funds paring back some of their short JPY position last week but remain core short, looking for this support to continue to hold. A move back below 145/146 is needed to potentially start seeing these positions being flushed out. Can the FOMC or the BOJ this week be that catalyst ?
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Pressing Resistance Heading Into FOMC
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6672 - 0.6690 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6675, -0.15%. US stocks finally paused for a breath ahead of the FOMC, but the USD can’t catch a break and looks to be breaking lower even before the market hears from Powell. The AUD continues to be supported and grinds higher. How the USD reacts after the FOMC will be key as the market has already priced in some significant negativity. If the USD can follow through with this move then we could see the AUD gain momentum above 0.6650/0.6700 and potentially target levels back towards 0.6900/0.7000. The price action suggests dips will be supported for now as we await confirmation of this potential break higher, the first buy-zone is back towards the 0.6550 area.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Stalls ahead Of 0.6000
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5975 - 0.5990 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5980, -0.10%. US stocks finally paused for a breath ahead of the FOMC, but the USD can’t catch a break and looks to be breaking lower even before the market hears from Powell. The USD continues to extend lower, which is supporting the NZD. A close back above 0.6000 would negate any semblance of the downward pressure it was exhibiting, but for those that have a bearish view this remains a decent entry point to express that, the FOMC tomorrow morning could be the catalyst needed for a clearer direction.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: KOSPI Off Recent Highs As China's Rally Continues
Having touched a new high of 3,449 yesterday, the KOSPI is off today on profit taking and positioning shifts ahead of the FED. As China rallied, Japan fell also in all round what was a mixed day across the region.
OIL: Crude Holding Gains Ahead Of Fed & EIA Data
Crude has held onto most of this week’s gains trending only slightly lower during today’s APAC session. WTI is down 0.1% to $64.45/bbl after a low of $64.37 but it reached $64.67 early in the session. Brent is 0.1% lower at $68.38/bbl, close to the intraday low. The USD index is little changed ahead of the Fed decision later on Wednesday.
Gold Lower Ahead Of Today’s Fed Decision
Gold prices are down moderately during today’s APAC session after reaching a new high of $3703.07/oz on Tuesday and ahead of the Fed decision later. They are currently down 0.2% to $3681.1 after rising to $3695.39 and then falling to $3674.45. The US dollar is slightly higher and yields little changed as markets wait for Fed Chair Powell’s comments and the updated forecasts as a 25bp rate cut is widely expected.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 17/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 17/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | Consumer inflation report | |
| 17/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | ECB Lagarde at ECB Annual Research Conference | ||
| 17/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ECB Cipollone At Associazione Bancaria Italiana EC Meeting | ||
| 17/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Final | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1115/1315 | ECB Cipollone Speaks at Netherlands Central Bank Resilience Conference | ||
| 17/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | International Canadian Transaction in Securities | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Housing Starts | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Housing Starts | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | Bank of Canada Policy Decision | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | BOC press conference | ||
| 17/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US DOE Petroleum Supply | |
| 17/09/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | FOMC Statement | |
| 18/09/2025 | 2245/1045 | *** | GDP | |
| 18/09/2025 | - | NorgesBank Meeting | ||
| 18/09/2025 | - | Bank of Japan Meeting | ||
| 18/09/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | Machinery orders | |
| 18/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | Labor Force Survey | |
| 18/09/2025 | 0710/0910 | ECB Lagarde Video Message at Women Leadership Summit | ||
| 18/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Norges Bank Rate Decision | |
| 18/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EZ Current Account | |
| 18/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ECB de Guindos at MNI Connect Event | ||
| 18/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EZ Construction Output | |
| 18/09/2025 | 0945/1145 | ECB Schnabel Chairs Panel at ECB Research Conference | ||
| 18/09/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 18/09/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 18/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 18/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 18/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |