China April trade data showed shifting flows in response to tariffs. Trade surpluses rose with the EU and ASEAN but fell with the US. This comes ahead of key trade talks this weekend between the US-China.
Japan wages data was weaker than forecast, but household spending was above expectations.
In markets, the USD tried to build on Thursday gains, but ran out of steam. US Tsy yields fell slightly.
Looking ahead, the main focus will be on Fed speak, while Canada jobs data is also due out.
TYM5 has traded higher within a range of 110-24 to 110-30 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-28, up 0-02 from the previous close.
The US 2-year yield is a little lower, dealing around 3.863%, down 0.01 from its close.
The US 10-year yield is a little lower, dealing around 4.363%, down 0.02 from its close.
“Trump is said to be seeking a new 39.6% tax bracket for Americans earning at least $2.5 million as a way to offset other cuts in his signature economic package.”(BBG)
(Bloomberg) -- “The Japanese government is not considering using the sale of US Treasuries as part of its trade negotiation with the US, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato says.”
“Kato says that he confirmed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates would adversely impact economic and financial stability, in line with existing G-7 agreements.”
Asia has seen some of the big overnight moves be retraced. In the US 10-Yr yield price has bounced nicely off the 4.25/30% support as the supply takes its toll, target is back towards the top end of the range 4.45/50%.
Interest rate expectations across dollar-bloc economies have generally firmed through December 2025 over the past week. The US saw the most significant shift with a 20bps increase in expected year-end rates, while Canada and Australia both firmed by approximately 12bps. New Zealand remained broadly unchanged.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, as widely expected, emphasising a patient approach amid continued economic strength. While the statement noted "stagflation risks," Chair Powell struck a more balanced tone, supporting market sentiment. "The labour market is solid. Inflation is low. We can afford to be patient as things unfold. There's no real cost to our waiting at this point," he said. Fed officials will emerge from the pre-meeting blackout on Friday, with Barr, Kugler, Williams, Barkin, Waller, Hammack, and Cook all scheduled to speak.
In New Zealand, Q1 labour market data showed tentative signs of stabilisation at weak levels. Although the unemployment rate held steady at 5.1%, beating expectations, the anticipated increase in labour supply failed to materialise. The data largely aligns with the RBNZ’s February projections, keeping a 25bp rate cut at the May 28 meeting firmly on the table.
In Canada and Australia, newsflow was limited over the past week.
The next major event in the $-bloc is the RBA's policy meeting on May 20, where markets are currently fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut.
Looking ahead to December 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 3.66%, -67bps; Canada (BOC): 2.33%, -42bps; Australia (RBA): 3.10%, -100bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 2.73%, -78bps.
JGB futures are weaker, -36 compared to settlement levels, hovering near the middle of today’s range.
Outside of the previously outlined household spending and labour earnings, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's heavy session.
“On May 9, municipalities of prefectures including Saitama and Kanagawa were forced to price their bond offerings at wider spreads for a second straight month.” (per BBG)
Cash JGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the futures-linked 7-year leading the way. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.9bps higher at 1.364% after yesterday's poor auction.
The 40-year yield climbed to its highest level on record (3.374%) today amid heightened volatility from the global trade war and concerns about worsening supply and demand for super-long debt.
“Life insurers do not need to rush to buy super-long JGBs, and lack of demand in that sector still persists, according to Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo.” (per BBG)
Swap rates are flat out to the 10-year but 2-3bps higher beyond. Swap spreads are mixed.
On Monday, the local calendar will see Current Account & Trade Balance and Bank Lending data.
Japan March wages were below expectations across the board. Headline cash earnings were +2.1%y/y, against a 2.5% forecast, while the prior month was revised down to 2.7% (originally reported as a 3.1% gain). Real cash earnings were -2.1%y/y, against a -1.6% forecast, Feb was also revised lower. On a same sample base, cash earnings rose 2.4%y/y, against a 2.7% forecast, while scheduled full time pay rose 2.0%y/y, also below forecasts. These metrics on a same sample base were revised marginally higher for Feb.
The chart below plots the headline nominal and real earnings measures in y/y terms (white and the orange line respectively), while the green line is the same sample base scheduled full time pay.
All of the measures are off cycle highs. A concerning point for the authorities and the BoJ will be the return to negative territory for real wage momentum. The orange line has not been able to sustain positive trends above 0% in recent years. This supports the recent BoJ shift around more caution on future rate cuts and lowering its inflation and growth forecasts.
In terms of the detail, bonus payments fell to 13.9% y/y from 74.1% in Feb. Most segments saw slower y/y momentum compared to Feb.
Fig 1: Japan Labor Earnings Lost Momentum In March
Japan March household spending data was much better than forecast, offsetting some of the negative impact of the lower labor earnings data. Real household spending rose 2.1%y/y, versus 0.2% forecast and -0.5% prior. In the month household spending rose 0.4%.
Nominal spending was up 6.4% y/y, while nominal incomes rose 2.1%. Real incomes fell -2%y/y, consistent with the softer labor earnings data.
The chart below plots real household spending against real cash earnings (the orange line on the chart), both in y/y terms.
Weakness in real labor earnings places a caveat on today's spending beat in the sense of whether or not the positive momentum can be sustained.
The detail showed improvement in y/y terms in most sub categories, although food remain negative at -0.7%y/y (in real terms). Education saw the biggest y/y rise at 24.2%, while recreation was also positive at 5.1%.
Fig 1: Japan Real Household Spending & Real Labor Earnings Y/Y
ACGBs (YM -7.0 & XM -5.5) remain cheaper after the overnight lead-in from US tsys.
Cash US tsys are 1-2bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's heavy session.
Today, the local calendar has been light apart from the AOFM's sale of Nov-29 bond, which was well received. The cover ratio surged to a strong 5.4143x, up from 4.1286x at the previous auction, while the number of successful bidders fell to just three — highlighting highly concentrated demand.
Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -7bps.
The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to -6.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 6bps firmer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 2% probability, with a cumulative 99bps of easing priced by year-end.
"The three-year battle to tame Australia's worst inflation surge in four decades has been wearying for the Reserve Bank of Australia. At last, the guns have fallen silent, and a string of interest-rate cuts are being locked and loaded." (DJ via BBG)
On Monday, the local calendar will be empty.
Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond on Wednesday and A$800mn of the 2.50% 21 May 2030 bond on Friday.
NZGBs closed 2-3bps cheaper, but off the session's worst levels. The local calendar was light today and will remain so until Card Spending data next Wednesday.
Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's heavy session. Fed speakers will return from the media blackout on Friday: Barr, Kugler, Williams, Barkin, Waller, Hammack, and Cook are expected.
The NZ–US 10-year yield spread closed 3bps lower at +16bps, hovering near the midpoint of its trading range over the past month.
Swap rates closed 2bps higher.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 / early 2026 leading. 26bps of easing is priced for May 28, with a cumulative 77bps by November 2025.
Interest rate expectations across dollar-bloc economies have generally firmed through December 2025 over the past week. The US saw the most significant shift with a 20bps increase in expected year-end rates, while Canada and Australia both firmed by approximately 12bps. New Zealand remained broadly unchanged.
The BBDXY has had an Asian range of 1229.53 - 1232.75, Asia is currently trading around 1230. Finally a sustained move higher in the USD off levels that were overdone in the short-term, can it extend ?. “ The US said it's developing a fast-track process for screening foreign investments in the US, an effort Trump administration officials expect could smooth the way for billions from wealth funds in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.” - per BBG. "GOLDMAN SACHS NOW EXPECTS BOE TO HOLD INTEREST RATES AT THE JUNE MEETING VS PRIOR FORECAST OF A 25 BP CUT - [RTRS]"
EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1197 - 1.1233, Asia is currently trading 1.1225. Intra-day support has been broken, price is now testing longer-term support around 1.1200, a sustained break below here would then target 1.1000. The market is still expected to use dips as a buying opportunity.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3212 - 1.3253, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3235. GBP held up against its crosses but against the USD it has broken through the support around 13250. If sustained we could see this correction extend further, buyers are expected to return back towards 1.3000/3100.
USD/JPY - Asian range 145.47 - 146.19, the Asia session has seen a reversal of some of the overnight moves. The 146.00/1.4700 area remains the first area in which sellers should be eager to get involved, then the more important 149/151 area.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.2378 - 7.2528, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.2095. Asia is currently dealing around 7.2475, sellers have capped the 7.2500 in Asia. A move through this area targets 7.27/30.
The Asian session tried to run with the moves from overnight with both the AUD and NZD making new lows before bouncing back with only the NZD ending marginally down on the day. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said trade deals with South Korea and Japan would take significantly more time than the agreement with the UK, if so how long does that imply a US-China deal could take ? China’s Vice Foreign Minister Hua made some comments: "What the United States is doing cannot be sustained," Hua said. "Ordinary people in the U.S. already feel suffering from the tariff war."
AUD/USD - Asian range 0.6371 - 0.6405, the AUD is currently dealing around 0.6400. Price is testing the intra-day support just below 0.6400, decent option interest around expiring tonight. A break below 0.6300 needed to reverse direction.
AUD/JPY - Asian range 93.00 - 93.43, price goes into London trading around 93.25. Price continues to stall back towards the resistance seen around 94.00, a break needed to have a look back at longer-term resistance towards 95.00/9600. Support seen back towards the 91.50/92.00 area.
NZDUSD - Asian range 0.5871 - 0.5908, going into London trading around 0.5895. The NZD slipped below its lows going back to 16th April having a look at what stops might be lurking, it has since bounced back. The bigger Long-term support lies back towards 0.5800/50.
AUD/NZD - Asian range 1.0833 - 1.0865, the Asian session is currently trading 1.0865. Price is pushing through the resistance around 1.0850 as the NZD underperforms, can it hold under 1.0900 ?
The announcement of a trade deal between the UK and the US has the attention of the markets with hopes that some form of truce or moderation in a trade war. The deal comes just prior to a proposed meeting between US and Chinese officials in which President Trump said he believes tangible results will come from. Markets felt like they were in a holding pattern today with China stocks down whilst regional bourses were mixed.
The Hang Seng did very little all day and remains where it opened whereas the CSI 300 fell -0.23%, Shanghai -0.26% and Shenzhen down -0.95%. For teh week all have delivered strong positive returns with the Hang Seng almost 3% higher.
The KOSPI followed the lead of the Hang Seng and has barely moved from where it opened and has delivered modest gains of about +0.50% for the week.
The FTSE Malay KLCI gained a modest +0.10% today which is in line with its overall performance for the week.
The Jakarta Composite rose +0.25% and will deliver yet another week of positive gains, up +0.45%.
The FTSE Straits Times is up +0.60%, 0.67% for the week and the Philippines PSEi gained +1.10%, pushing it into the positive for the week.
The NIFTY 50 in India down again by -1.2%, having fallen -0.58% yesterday on concerns as to the conflict between India and Pakistan.
A stronger USD for now seems not to deter flows with major markets enjoying strong inflows and the regional inflows at US$5.7bn for the week.
South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$156m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$768m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,903m. The 5-day average is +$154m, the 20-day average is -$91m and the 100-day average of -$135m.
Taiwan: Had inflows of +$233m as of yesterday, with total inflows of +$3,343m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$15,116. The 5-day average is +$669m, the 20-day average of +$174m and the 100-day average of -$160m.
India: Had inflows of +$349m as of the 7th, with total inflows of +$1,392m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$10,895m. The 5-day average is +$278m, the 20-day average of +$156m and the 100-day average of -$115m.
Indonesia: Had outflows of -$51m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$156m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$3,218m. The 5-day average is -$31m, the 20-day average -$58m and the 100-day average -$37m
Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$91m as of yesterday, inflows totaling +$132m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,572m. The 5-day average is +$26m, the 20-day average of -$21m the 100-day average of -$18m.
Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$10m as of yesterday, totaling +$148m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,511m. The 5-day average is +$30m, the 20-day average of +$13m and the 100-day average of -$30m.
Philippines: Saw no flows yesterday, with net inflows of +$35m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$228m. The 5-day average is +$7m, the 20-day average of zero the 100-day average of -$3m.
Oil prices had a strong night as the news of a trade deal with the UK drove optimism across markets that a global slowdown may be avoided but couldn't continue with the rally in Asia, falling marginally.
As US and China face off for negotiations over the weekend oil markets will watch closely for signs that some kind of agreement can be made with President Trump suggesting he remains positive.
Oil prices have faced downward pressure from an OPEC+ led increase in supply and concerns that a global slowdown will detract from overall demand.
WTI opened at US$60.25 bbl and dropped -0.22% yet remains on track to deliver over 3% gains for the week.
Brent opened at $63.07 and has hovered around the level all day. Brent is on track to finish the week +2.9% higher.
OPEC+ continues to be frustrated at Kazakhstan which again intends to exceed its OPEC+ obligations and output targets.
Russia's oil exports declined to their lowest in over two years, worth about $4.96 billion in the four weeks to May 4 on lower prices, putting pressure on their fiscal position.
After two days of significant declines, gold had a minor bounce in Asia today, gaining +0.28% at US$3,314.60.
With the European and US trading days still to come, gold so far this week is up +2.25% despite the falls on Wednesday and Thursday.
Gold last ground last night as the USD reasserted itself following the announcement of a trade deal between the UK and the US.
The deal comes just prior to a proposed meeting between US and Chinese officials in which President Trump said he believes tangible results will come from.
Markets then focused on the fact that US rates are on hold, piling back into the dollar which in turn sent gold lower.
Gold has steadied just marginally above the 20-day EMA of $3,284.08 as all major moving averages remain upward sloping; a sign that the bullish momentum remains.
China's aggregate trade surplus dipped from $102.64bn in March to $96.18bn in April. This was still above consensus expectations. This headline trade surplus is around levels that prevailed for much of H2 2024. It does mask some underlying shifts though as tariffs start to impact trends.
China's trade surplus with the US fell to $20.46bn, from $27.58bn in March. Outside of China LNY periods this is a soft result, see the chart below
Offsets in terms of the aggregate trade position came in terms of a rise in the surplus position with ASEAN nations to $27.19bn, from $23.89bn prior. The surplus with the EU also rose to $26.67bn from $21.50bn. EU's surplus is now larger than that with the US.
Most countries within the EU saw a higher surplus from China's standpoint, particularly the Netherlands.
In terms of trade deficits, China's position with Australia worsened to -$5.85bn, from -$3.05bn, likely on account of higher imports of iron ore from Australia.
The trade deficit with Taiwan was modestly tighter at -$12.60bn.
Fig 1: China's Trade Balance US (White Line) & EU (Orange Line)
Despite a period of heightened volatility in markets, the Indonesian consumer confidence rose in April from March.
The index rose to 121.7 from 121.1 in what was somewhat of a surprise.
The index for economic condition rose also to 113.7 from 110.6 in March, with incomes rising whilst employment and business activity moderating.
Consumer expectations however has moderated to 129.8 from 131.7 in March.
The modest rise comes on the back of falling consumer confidence at the beginning of the year. The index finished 2024 at 127.7 and fell heavily in March.
In North East Asia FX markets, KRW volatility has been the standout today, while TWD NDFs has seen resumed USD selling pressure. USD/CNH has been relatively steady.
USD/CNH holds near 7.2500 in latest dealings, slightly up on end Thursday levels. The USD/CNY fix rose, as expected, while the error term re-widened in line with stronger USD index levels. China's Foreign Ministry noted that the country has full confidence in its ability to handle the trade conflict with the US. Equally it was noted that the US tariff levels can't be sustained given the suffering of ordinary people in the US. This comes ahead of the key US-China trade talks in Switzerland this weekend.
April trade data showed export and import growth better than forecast. Exports to the US fell sharply, while the trade surplus was narrower. The trade surplus China had with the EU was larger than that with the US, highlighting China's shifting trade flows in response to US tariff levels.
Spot USD/KRW was on the front foot in the first part of Friday trade, the pair getting up to 1415, which was around the 200-day EMA resistance point and lows from April. We quickly reversed lower though and sit back at 1400 in latest dealings. This coincided with broader USD retracement.
Spot USD/TWD has remained very steady, the pair last near 30.30, so still within recent ranges but showing a slight upside bias in recent sessions. Greater USD selling pressure has returned to the NDF market though. The 1 month is off 1.3%, last under 29.70, while the 6 mth is back under 29.00, off by 1.4%. The 12 mth has fallen to 28.24, down nearly 1.6%. Taiwan equities have risen strongly today, up over 1.6%, which may be aiding the NDF move, while NDF shifts back closer to spot levels may also be encouraging fresh hedging flows.
The Reserve Bank of India has eased some restrictions for global investors buying local company bonds, aiming to lift foreign participation as investment quota usage is near the lowest level in at least a decade. Foreigners are no longer limited to having only 30% of their corporate bond holdings in debt maturing within a year, the RBI said in a circular late Thursday. Additionally, the authority scrapped the concentration limit for these investors. (source RBI)
India's central bank is expected to pay a record dividend to the government, estimated to be around 3-3.5 trillion rupees, to offset shortfall in tax revenues due to slow growth. The dividend will bridge the gap in tax collections this year due to weak growth and lower disinvestment receipts amid market volatility, and create fiscal space of 0.1% to 0.2% of the gross domestic product. The windfall can be used to increase spending on social welfare, export promotion programs, and to meet any defense and internal security expenses if needed. (source BBG)
The NIFTY 50 in India down again by -1.2%, having fallen -0.58% yesterday on concerns as to the conflict between India and Pakistan.
The rupee is down by -0.14% today and down -1.5% for the week.
Bonds have been strong given RBI buying this week, but have started Friday on the back foot with the IGB 10YR at 6.43% (+3.5bps)
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says trade deals with South Korea will take significantly more time to complete than the framework agreement with the UK.He mentioned India as a possibility for a future agreement, but notes that it will require a lot of work, with around 7,000 lines of tariffs to be changed or modified.He also said that he hopes that initial deals can serve as templates for their respective regions, and President Donald Trump is "very close" to signing more agreements.(source BBG)
Bank of Korea releases March current account data in statement today. Feb. current-account surplus at $7.18b; last year March surplus was $6.99b. Goods trade surplus at $8.49b in March vs $8.18b surplus for Feb. Services deficit at $2.21b in March vs $3.21b deficit for Feb. (source Maeil)
The KOSPI followed the lead of the Hang Seng and has barely moved from where it opened and has delivered modest gains of about +0.50% for the week.
The Won has had a strong day today gaining +.25% to drag it into positive territory for the week.
Bonds finished the week with a strong sell off with yields up to +4.5bps higher. KTB 10YR 2.67% +4.5bps
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date
GMT/Local
Impact
Country
Event
09/05/2025
0600/0800
***
NO
CPI Norway
09/05/2025
0800/1000
*
IT
Industrial Production
09/05/2025
0840/0940
GB
BOE Bailey Keynote Address at Reykjavik Economic Conference