EM LATAM CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - LATAM (23 Apr)

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.51 @ 16:55 GMT Mar 24 
• SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 160.28 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10  
• SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support 

The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.28, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.    

The advance estimate of Canadian manufacturing sales shows a 0.2% M/M nominal decline in February, led by falls in food / petroleum and coal products, per StatCan.

• If confirmed, it would mark the weakest reading / first decline (in nominal terms) since September.
• Recall that the prior figure (+1.7% M/M) reflected a strong rise in motor vehicle and primary metals sales, and though real sales rose by just 0.9%, the latter should mean a decent contribution from industry to January GDP (out Friday; consensus is +0.3% M/M after +0.2%).
• However - pending prelim wholesale sales data out this Wednesday - industry in February may have proven sequentially weaker, and comes against a backdrop of uncertainty and volatility amid a nascent US-Canada trade war.

• Treasuries look to finish near lows Monday as Trump admin trade policy narrowed from universal tariffs to more targeted approach when the April 2 "Liberation Day" arrives.
• Treasury futures extended lows after S&P Flash PMI services (54.3 bbg cons 51.0) and composite (53.5 cons 50.9) data came out higher then expected while manufacturing declined (49.8 bbg cons 51.7).
• Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic (non-2025 FOMC voter, leans hawk) says in a Bloomberg interview that he has reduced his 2025 rate cut expectations to 1 in March's economic projections versus 2 previously, "because I think we will see inflation be very bumpy", and delayed inflation progress warranted pushing back the path to neutral rates.
• The Jun'25 10Y currently trades 110-17 (-18), just above initial technical support at 110-16.5 (Low Mar 24) followed by 110-12.5 (Low Mar 6 & 13). Resistance above at 111-25 (Mar 11 high), support below at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7). Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.3346% high, curves still mixed: 2s10s +.014 at 29.406, 5s30s -1.943 at 56.480.
• Late tariff headlines saw risk sentiment cool slightly after Trump said he would announce additional tariffs on cars "shortly" and pharmaceuticals at "some point".