MNI BOE Preview and UK Inflation Insight: June 2026

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• The main things to watch going into the June MPC meeting are the vote split and the individual paragraphs.
• In April Huw Pill was the sole dissenter in favouring an immediate rate hike. Since then, Megan Greene has made a hawkish speech which read very much like she was making the argument to join Pill in voting for a hike. We, along with the majority of the sell side, expect a 7-2 vote split as our base case. However, the risks around this are not as one sided as they appeared last week.
• We aren’t sure whether it really matters if it is an 8-1 or 7-2 split in terms of market reaction given the change in the balance of risks – if Greene does vote for a hike it could be argued her speech backed her into a corner, if she does not and Iran tension re-intensify, she’ll be the first to join Pill in voting for a hike. However a 6-3 or 9-0 vote would be huge news for the market.
• We also round up over 20 sell side views, with most updated following this morning's CPI data and to take into account the weekend news.
• May headline CPI surprised to the downside, rounding to 2.8%Y/Y (0.2ppt below consensus of 3.0%Y/Y) - but it was 2.848%Y/Y so as close as possible to rounding up to 2.9%Y/Y. This was 0.41ppt below the BOE’s MPR forecast (a greater downside surprise than the 0.23ppt seen in April). This was largely driven by food and core goods - we look into the details.