MNI ASIA OPEN - Trump Says He Will Speak to Xi on Friday
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- MNI FED PREVIEW: A RELUCTANT RETURN TO EASING
- TRUMP SAYS HE’LL SPEAK TO XI FRIDAY, HINTS AT TIKTOK DEAL
- CHINESE NEGOTIATOR CONFIRMS TIKTOK 'FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT'
- CHINA FINDS NVIDIA VIOLATED ANTITRUST LAW AFTER INITIAL PROBE
- MIRAN SET FOR FED CONFIRMATION, TRUMP EYES FINAL PUSH TO REMOVE COOK
Figure 1: Regional Fed manufacturing surveys start September on a weak note
MNI PREVIEWS
Hidden PDF: A Reluctant Return to Easing
The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%. The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.
Hidden PDF: Another Close Call
At the start of the month, analyst and market expectations were fairly comfortably in favour of a 25bp Norges Bank cut on September 18th. However, domestic data released over the past two weeks have made the decision a much closer call. We currently lean against consensus in favour of a hold at 4.25% - a risk we thought markets were underappreciating even before the recent run of domestic data.
MNI BCB PREVIEW: Copom to Maintain Hawkish Messaging
Analysts are unanimous that the Copom will leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% for a second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, as it maintains its high for longer stance. Although inflation has continued to edge lower, it remains well above target, while unanchored inflation expectations are still a concern for the Board, despite a further gradual improvement. As such, there are unlikely to be any surprises in the post-meeting statement, given the firm guidance of maintaining the Selic rate at current levels for “a very prolonged period” to ensure the convergence of inflation to target.
MNI UK DATA PREVIEW: September 2025 CPI and Labour Release
Both labour market data and CPI data will have already been released to MPC members this morning, and both data releases are important for future monetary policy despite markets pricing in only around a 1/3 probability of a rate cut this year (and not fully pricing a 25bp cut until April 2026). We think that both Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Ramsden are very much focused on the labour market print (probably a little more so than inflation). Along with Breeden, all three members are likely needed on board in order for another rate cut this year to materialize. We think that the market focus will switch back to AWE private regular pay data. Both the median and mean estimate from the previews that we have read is that this will fall to 4.65%Y/Y in the 3-months to July.
MNI EXCLUSIVES
FED (MNI EXCLUSIVE): Fed Easing Constrained By High Inflation - Sahm
MNI speaks with former central bank economist Claudia Sahm on rate outlook.
EUROZONE (MNI EXCLUSIVE): ECB TPI Assumption Supports Bonds - Italy, Greek Officials
MNI speaks with Italian and Greek officials about eurozone debt markets.
CHINA (MNI EXCLUSIVE): Beijing Targets Trump Visit, Sees Limited Deal - Advisors
Chinese policy advisors speak about their expectations for trade talks with the U.S.
TURKEY (MNI EXCLUSIVE): CBRT Closing in on Inflation Target - Ex-Director
The former head of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's markets department comments on inflation.
CHILE (MNI EXCLUSIVE): Chile Nears Easing Cycle End - Ex-Deputy Garcia
Former deputy governor of Chile's central bank Pablo Garcia talks to MNI in an interview.
All on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
NEWS
US-CHINA (MNI London): Chinese Negotiator Confirms TikTok 'Framework Agreement'
China's top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, has described two days of meetings with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer on issues of 'common concern' as "in-depth, candid, and constructive." Li said, per Reuters, that "both sides acknowledged stable trade ties is significant," adding that while "frictions are normal", it is "important to respect each other's core concerns."
US/CHINA (MNI): Officials Tout Progress in Madrid Talks, Trump and Xi to Speak Friday
US Treasury Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer have touted progress in talks with Chinese counterparts, following two-days of talks in Madrid, Spain - the fourth high-level trade talks between the two countries. Bessent confirmed that President Donald Trump will speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. Trump wrote on Truth Social a short time ago, "A deal was also reached on a "certain" company that young people in our Country very much wanted to save... I will be speaking to President Xi on Friday." Greer claimed that TikTok will be "switched" to 'US-controlled ownership'. Bessent said he "will not talk about commercial terms of TikTok deal."
US/CHINA (BBG): China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Law After Initial Probe
China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws after concluding a preliminary investigation, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations. The US chipmaker was found in violation of antitrust regulations, the State Administration for Market Regulation said in a one-sentence statement, without elaborating. The company has previously disclosed it’s facing scrutiny inside China, where regulators demanded it keep supplying local companies in return for regulatory approval of its acquisition of Mellanox.
US/UK (Reuters): US, Britain to Announce More Than $10 Billion In Deals During Trump Visit: US Officials
The United States and Britain plan to announce more than $10 billion in economic deals this week as part of U.S. President Donald Trump's state visit, senior U.S. officials said on Monday. The two governments are expected to seal a trade agreement with three pillars: a new science and technology partnership to strengthen the tech sectors of both countries, cooperation in civil nuclear power, and advances in defense technology cooperation, the officials said in a telephone briefing. Several U.S. tech business leaders are expected to be in attendance for the state visit, the officials said.
US/INDIA (BBG): US Trade Negotiators Head to India for One Day of Talks
A team of US officials will arrive in India on Monday night for trade deal discussions, signaling the two nations are moving closer to resolving differences. India and the US have been “engaged virtually” and officials from Washington will be in New Delhi for a day, the South Asian nation’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agarwal told reporters at a briefing on Monday. “We will be holding talks tomorrow to see what will be the future” of trade negotiations, he added.
US (MNI): Miran Set for Fed Confirmation, Trump Eyes Final Push to Remove Cook
The Senate is on track to confirm Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, seating the CEA Chair in time for the Fed's two-day rate-setting meeting that kicks off on Tuesday. The Senate will hold a cloture vote on Miran's nomination at around 17:30 ET 22:30 BST Monday, with a full confirmation vote likely to take place at roughly 20:00 ET 01:00 BST. Despite some reservations from institutionalist Senate Republicans, there is not expected to be any GOP opposition. Meanwhile, on Sunday, the Trump administration filed an appeal for a stay on a lower court block on Governor Lisa Cook's firing, a long-shot bid to remove Cook ahead of the FOMC meeting.
US (BBG): Trump Says Companies Should Report Earnings Every Six Months
President Donald Trump said companies should not be forced to deliver earnings reports on a quarterly basis, saying he preferred a six-month schedule he cast as saving businesses time and money. “Subject to SEC Approval, Companies and Corporations should no longer be forced to “Report” on a quarterly basis (Quarterly Reporting!), but rather to Report on a ‘Six (6) Month Basis,’” Trump said in a social-media post on Monday, referencing the Securities and Exchange Commission.
US (BBG): BLS Is Hiring 25 Part-Time Staff to Collect Prices for CPI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiring price collectors for a key inflation metric that’s increasingly relying on a statistical guessing method to compensate for lost staff.
ECB (BBG): ECB’s Schnabel Backs Steady Rates Amid Upside Inflation Risks
The European Central Bank should maintain its current level of interest rates, with dangers to prices tilted to the upside, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. In a presentation for an event Monday in Luxembourg, Schnabel said small deviations from the 2% inflation target should be tolerated, describing the ECB as being in a good place. “Monetary policy should keep a steady hand,” she said. “Upside risks to inflation dominate, with tariffs, services inflation, food inflation and fiscal policy as potential drivers.”
ECB (BBG): ECB’s Kocher Says Euro-Area Inflation Risks ‘Quite Balanced’
European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher said officials stand ready to react to changes in the economic data even if inflation risks for the region are “quite balanced” at the moment. “Personally, I think they are quite balanced in terms of upward and downward potential of inflation,” the new Austrian central-bank governor said at a Bloomberg event in Vienna. “We look at the data at the meeting and we are ready to respond.”
EUROPE (BBG): Italy Is Drafting Plans to Raise €1.5 Billion More From Banks
Giorgia Meloni’s government is working on a preliminary plan to raise an extra €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) from Italian lenders in 2027 by postponing their tax deductions, according to people familiar with the matter. Italian officials are considering renewing the measure for an additional 12 months, bringing the total of contributions to the budget to €3 billion over next two years, the people said.
CANADA (MNI): Canada Budget Needs Generational Investment: Fin Min
Canada's finance minister said his budget next month needs to provide a "generational investment" to fend off damage from the U.S. trade war, while declining to comment on a newspaper report the deficit will grow to CAD100 billion from a campaign pledge of just over CAD60 billion. Francois Philippe Champagne told reporters Monday the government will also aim to curb spending in other areas to free up room for longer-term projects, without providing details. MNI previously reported the government set up a power to borrow an extra CAD95 billion to deal with the trade war.
THAILAND (BBG): Thailand Said to Weigh Tax on Gold Trades to Slow Baht Rally
Thai authorities are considering a tax on physical gold trading to slow a rally in the nation’s currency that has threatened exports and tourism. The baht fell the most in six weeks. The Bank of Thailand and Ministry of Finance are discussing ways to tax gold bought and sold through various online channels and settled in baht, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. Any such levy may exempt gold traded in US dollars, on futures exchanges, or purchases made from bullion shops, the people said.
CORPORATE (BBG): Alphabet Hits $3 Trillion Market Cap After Citi Boosts Target
Alphabet Inc. shares are up 3.7% on Monday, with the company achieving a $3 trillion market capitalization for the first time after Citi raised its price target on the Google parent to $280 from $225. Analyst Ron Josey sees “an accelerated product development cycle that is beginning to emerge with greater Gemini adoption across both its Ads and Cloud businesses,” and this ramping product velocity is coming “amid greater clarity around its legal and regulatory challenges in what we believe is a relatively healthy online advertising market”
FRANCE (MNI): Bank of France Trims GDP Growth Forecasts
The Bank of France downgraded its real GDP growth forecasts on domestic business uncertainty and unfavourable assumptions whilst also warning that less fiscal consolidation might not lead to additional growth. Core inflation forecasts are also on net trimmed, seen below the ECB's 2% target throughout the forecast horizon.
DATA
US DATA (MNI): Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys Start Sept on a Weak Note
- US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX -8.7 SEP
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG NEW ORDERS -19.6 SEP
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG PRICES PAID INDEX 46.1 SEP
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG EMPLOYMENT INDEX -1.2 SEP
The Empire Fed manufacturing survey saw surprisingly soft business activity in September, at -8.7 (cons 5) after 11.9 in August for its lowest and first negative print since June. As usual, this offers the first early look amongst the regional Fed surveys for September, collected Sep 2-9. It sees a sharp pullback for the often volatile survey after outperforming others in the summer. "New orders and shipments fell sharply", down 35pts and 30pts to both their lowest since April 2024 respectively, including -19.6 for new orders.
CANADA DATA (MNI): Automobile Gains Lead July Factory and Wholesale Sales
- CANADIAN JUL MANUFACTURING SALES +2.5% MOM
- CANADA JUL WHOLESALES EX-PETROLEUM/OILSEED/GRAIN +1.2%
- CANADA JUL FACTORY INVENTORIES +0.8%; INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.72
Canadian factory sales rose 2.5% in July and wholesale sales rose 1.2% excluding petroleum and grains, StatsCan said Monday. Automobiles led both categories as the disruption of U.S. tariffs earlier this year that led to a drop in production resulted in shorter than usual summer shutdowns. Factory sales were still down 1.7% from a year earlier. Exports of cars and parts rose 6.7% in July according to the factory report.
EUROZONE DATA (MNI): Trade Data See Further Post Tariff Front-Running Adjustment
The Euro area goods trade surplus surprised lower for the third time in four months, with a seasonally adjusted E5.3bn in July (cons E12.0bn expected) after an upward revised but still low E3.7bn (initial E2.8bn) in June. The Bloomberg consensus figure again consisted of only three responses, so we wouldn't put too much weight on the surprise and instead focus on the direction. The trend is one of clear narrowing in surpluses, with an average E4.5bn in Jun/Jul, E15.2bn in Apr/May and E24.3bn in Feb/Mar on peak tariff front-running. For a sense of a more 'typical' surplus, it averaged E14.1bn per month through 2024.
FOREX: US Dollar Grinding Lower Ahead of Busy Economic Calendar
- Despite a relatively calm start to the week from an event risk perspective, the US dollar is trading on the back foot Monday. Strong performance for the major equity benchmarks on US/China optimism has been weighing, while the more activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House may be providing an additional greenback headwind.
- The USD index sits 0.25% lower on the session in sympathy, with broad based associated strength for the rest of the G10. GBP moderately outperforms, while AUD has also extended its recent momentum.
- Bullish conditions for GBPUSD have been bolstered this morning, following the break of the bull trigger located at 1.3595 (Aug 14 high) which places the pair at two-month highs and suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Immediate resistance is found at 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug 1 downleg, before 1.3681, the Jul 4 high. UK labour market data kicks off Tuesday’s calendar, before UK CI and the BOE decision later this week.
- For AUDUSD, today’s 0.3% advance prompted fresh cycle highs for the pair at 0.6672. Last week’s gains plus the breach of the bull trigger at 0.6625 confirmed a resumption of the technical uptrend, and the pair has narrowed the gap substantially to the US election related highs at 0.6688. RBA Assistant Governor and chief economist Hunter will speak in a fireside chat Tuesday.
- SEK also outperforms the G10 basket, supported by the aforementioned drivers. However, there may also be some spillover from Riksbank Governor Thedeen's recent interview with Dagens Industri, which cements next week's central bank decision as a very close call between a cut and a hold.
- Aside from UK data, German ZEW will cross during the European morning on Tuesday. Focus then shifts to US retail sales and Canadian CPI as notable data prints before the plethora of central bank decisions later in the week.
COMMODITIES: Gold Hits Fresh All-Time High, WTI Crude Climbs
- Gold has rallied to a fresh all-time high on Monday amid broad dollar weakness ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, when a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. Bullion may also be benefitting from continued Fed independence concerns after President Trump called again for rates to be cut.
- Spot gold has risen by a further 1.0% to $3,681/oz, taking total gains this month to almost 6%.
- Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with the break higher confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Above here, attention turns to round number resistance at the $3,700 handle, followed by $3,716.5, a Fibonacci projection.
- Similarly, silver has also rallied by 0.9% to $42.6/oz.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with today’s move piercing resistance at $42.606, a Fibonacci projection. Above here, next resistance is seen at $42.974, the 2.382 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing, followed by $43.000 round number resistance.
- Meanwhile, WTI crude is also trading higher, with the market weighing the impacts of further Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
- WTI Oct 25 is up by 0.9% at $63.3/bbl.
- Despite the move, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective.
- Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Initial support is at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 16/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment |
| 16/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants |
| 16/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** |  IT | HICP (f) |
| 16/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 16/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 16/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** |  EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 16/09/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** |  CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 16/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Retail Sales |
| 16/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 16/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 16/09/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 16/09/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 16/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 16/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 16/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 16/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 16/09/2025 | - | CA | Bank of Canada Meeting |
