JGBS AUCTION: Mixed 30Y Auction
Aug-07 03:46
The 30-year JGB auction delivered mixed results. The low price aligned with dealer expectations of 95.35, per the Bloomberg survey. However, the cover ratio dipped to 3.4297x from 3.5796x. On the other hand, the auction tail shortened significantly to 0.15 from 0.31, indicating an improvement in bidding strength.
- Today’s result is improved versus the 10-year auction earlier this week, which demonstrated weak demand metrics.
- As highlighted in our preview, today's issuance arrived with an outright yield approximately 30bps higher than last month’s issuance. Notably, the current yield is only 10bps below its cycle high of 3.219%.
- The 10s30s yield curve was also steeper versus the previous auction and at its cycle peak at 160bps.
- The 30-year JGB is 2bps richer than pre-auction levels in early afternoon trading.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
JGBS AUCTION: 5-Year Supply Shows Mixed Metrics
Jul-08 03:45
Today’s 5-year JGB auction showed mixed signals on demand. The low price came in line with expectations at 100.03, but the bid-to-cover ratio declined to 3.5411x from 4.5783x—albeit the highest since 2023. Meanwhile, the tail narrowed slightly to 0.02 from 0.05, pointing to improved bidding interest.
- The result aligns with the mixed demand signals seen at this month’s 10-year auction. With yields and the 2s/5s curve broadly unchanged from last month, today’s outcome represents a modest deterioration in overall demand conditions.
- In the aftermath, the 5-year sector is little changed in afternoon trading.
JGBS AUCTION: 5-Year JGB Auction Results
Jul-08 03:38
The Japanese Ministry Of Finance (MoF) sells ¥1,825.3bn 5-Year JGBs:
- Average Yield: 0.989% (prev. 0.982%)
- Average Price: 100.05 (prev. 100.08)
- High Yield: 0.993% (prev. 0.993%)
- Low price: 100.03 (prev. 100.03)
- % Allotted At High Yield: 6.9288% (prev. 73.3986%)
- Bid/Cover: 3.5411x (prev. 4.5783x)
RBNZ: MNI RBNZ Preview-July 2025: Likely On Hold
Jul-08 03:32
- The sell-side consensus is for the RBNZ to remain on hold tomorrow, which is also consistent with market pricing. There are some sell-side forecasters looking for a rate cut tomorrow, whilst most of those who see the RBNZ on hold, see risks of further cuts as we progress through 2025. For this meeting, our own bias is for the central bank to hold policy rates steady.
- Recent inflation outcomes arguably provide the strongest signal that the RBNZ should hold pat at tomorrow’s policy meeting outcome. Further on the inflation front was a tick up in inflation expectations for Q2. We are coming off a low base (just up from 2%), but the central bank may want to see Q3 trends (this data gets released on Aug 7) before drawing further conclusions as to whether trends are shifting or not.
- In contrast, growth indicators are still arguing for easier policy settings. The central bank is likely to be comfortable to preserve policy space at this juncture and assess upcoming inflation trends. It is likely to leave the door ajar for further policy support given headwinds to domestic growth.
- See this link:
