NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Gains Ground
Jun-06 11:37
TTF front month has reversed some earlier losses to be trading higher, with support from competition for LNG cargoes with Asia. The arbitrage economics for marginal US cargoes continues to favour the Far East.
- TTF JUL 24 up 0.6% at 33.55€/MWh
- TTF Q3 24 up 0.5% at 33.9€/MWh
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 273.4mcm/d but is expected to increase from tomorrow with the expected return of Nyhamna from unplanned outage. The Nyhamna capacity reduction will reduce from 79.8mcm/d to 44.8mcm/d tomorrow, according to Gassco.
- European LNG sendout has edged up from 218mcm/d on June 1 to 258mcm/d on June 4 but remains low compared to last month and this time last year.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to remain cool and fall below normal into next week before seeing a potential recovery back to normal in mid-June.
- Total European gas storage was up to 70.73% full on June 4 according to GIE compared to the five-year seasonal average of 59.0% amid below normal net injection rates.
- Hungary has no plans to move away from Russian gas and is pleased with the current cooperation between the two nations according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto Thursday.
- Indian Oil Corp. is in talks with LNG suppliers for long-term contracts although is waiting for policy guidance from the government, according to Bloomberg.
- Brazil’s Guanabara Bay regasification terminal is set to receive its first LNG cargo in nearly five months on June 6 according to Platts vessel tracking.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Extends
May-07 11:17
- In the FI space, Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bearish and the latest short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 129.26, the 1.618 projection of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing. Firm resistance is at 131.87, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be bullish.
- Gilt futures are trading higher today as the contract extends the recovery from the Apr 25 low of 95.36. The contract has recently cleared the 20-day EMA, and today’s gains have resulted in a break of the the 50-day EMA at 97.65. This undermines the recent bear theme and a clear break the EMA would highlight a stronger short-term bullish condition and open 98.23, the Apr 12 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 95.36, the bear trigger.
EQUITIES: Latest EU Bank options
May-07 11:14
- SX7E (20th Sep) 127.5/120ps, bought for 0.85 in 6k.
- SX7E (21st June) 145/150cs, bought for 1.6 and 1.45 in 17k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Remain Vulnerable
May-07 11:06
- On the commodity front, Gold is in consolidation mode. A bearish condition remains intact. The precious metal has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and this highlights a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2250.3, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle is allowing a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high. Initial resistance is at $2352.6, the Apr 26 high.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded lower last week and the contract is currently trading just above its recent lows. Price has breached key support at the 50-day EMA, at $81.05. The clear breach of this average strengthens a short-term bearish theme and highlights scope for a deeper correction. This has opened $76.07, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at $84.46, the Apr 26 high.
